Re:Are You Trading or Gambling?
by TeMPOraL on Saturday February 27, 2021 @06:37AM
(#26284193)
Isn't this the reverse of a self-fulfilling prophecy? A self-fulfilling prophecy attracts reality to the state it describes. The stock market, being anti-inductive, attracts reality away from whatever predictions being made - that is, for example, if I found a pattern that proves $GME reaches the Moon on Tuesday, enough other people would find that pattern too and start buying early, and $GME would reach the Moon on Monday, and probably crash on Tuesday.
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I think it does both but oscillates. At first people think it's an edge so it emerges as truth, then agents realize it's know and tweak around it.. but it's still the basis of their action.
All in all, I had the idea that pure chaos cannot be used so there will always have weak superstitious held as reference points for a game to emerge. The one who can play it right (or have enough resources to endure errors) or not when it shouldn't will benefit from the others.
Re:Are You Trading or Gambling?
by AbrahamParangi on Saturday February 27, 2021 @07:25AM
(#26284397)
That’s an artifact of including a specific time in your prediction. If you made that same statement time-invariant “GME will moon” it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's true, but making the statement time-invariant is also an oversimplification. Time does not end with the fulfillment of the prophecy and everybody knows that. Where does $GME go after reaching the moon? It can only stay there or go down, and in both cases people would start selling it.
Re:Are You Trading or Gambling?
by Double_Cast on Saturday February 27, 2021 @11:17AM
(#26285768)
Bubbles are inductive. Arbitrage is anti-inductive.