> I’d say that businesses that suck at managing on-prem will not magically get competent in a public cloud.

It takes time to build a competency. If you have to figure out how to operate everything from the hardware and networking all the way up to application, then you might very well fail as a business. If you can pay Amazon to manage your networking, hardware, databases, managed services, etc while you work on your application-level competencies, you stand a much better chance of succeeding ("I don't know if I could build everything from the ground up, but I can probably fumble my way to a container image"). As you become very proficient, you can cut costs, and if you're super proficient you might get off a public cloud altogether or more likely you'll just use that as leverage to negotiate a lower cloud bill.

Interestingly, you don't hear about many businesses that are so competent that they move from the public cloud to their own private clouds. Some people will shout "Lock in!", but I don't buy that--I've migrated between public cloud providers before and it's work, but if you're competent enough to run your own private data centers then you're plenty competent enough to migrate to them.