Yeah, I think we're basically on the same page, but have plugged pretty different numbers into the proverbial Drake equation.

I agree that job loss probably isn't all that bad... (Unless it lines up with a wave of companies closing, which is known to happen from time to time.)

I can also just save + diversify /more/ with faang salary and equity than I could at a startup. The $50k/year is a lower bound on what I expect the pay cut to be in moving to a startup. So from where I sit, there's really no financial argument for moving to a startup. The startup has rather lower pay, some probability of payout multiplied by a value that I just kinda expect will be chipped away by the suits, and some probability of a bad outcome (with some bounded range of potential badness). I look at it and just think it's not interesting unless I get really, really bored.