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Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by afterburner on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:27AM (#26214682)
You're worried about birds? Better raze all buildings and kill all the cats. Wind turbine bird deaths are negligible.

https://www.evwind.es/2020/10/01/the-realities-of-bird-and-b...

You know you can set up solar panels on roofs, and in the desert, right?

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by ktaylora on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:56AM (#26214995)
The direct impact of turbines on wildlife (e.g., from direct strikes) may be negligible. But the secondary effects of carving-up large blocks of intact grasslands in the Great Plains with infrastructure like service roads, wallpapering desert soils with panels, or placing high-capacity transmission lines, are not. This clearly contributes to habitat fragmentation and scientists have not thoroughly studied how recent infrastructure change is influencing habitat for wildlife.

I'm not arguing that increasing green energy production like wind and solar should stop. Because climate change is arguably a larger existential threat to the planet. But we do need to do a better job planning where infrastructure lands so we can mitigate habitat fragmentation. Habitat fragmentation doesn't really factor into the planning calculus at all.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by blacksmith_tb on Sunday February 21, 2021 @02:04PM (#26216131)
I grew up on the Great Plains, sadly there aren't many "intact" grasslands[1] at this point. Wind turbines are integrated into grain agriculture commonly these days[2], which seems mostly harmless (given that the farm roads and electrical infrastructure are already in place).

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tallgrass_prairie#Remnants

2: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/111219-wi...

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by ktaylora on Sunday February 21, 2021 @04:11PM (#26217228)
Yes. We've lost the tall grass prairie to corn. But there are still vast portions of short and mixed-grass prairie in the southern great plains on land that was never suitable for crop production. The Texas and Oklahoma panhandle region, for instance. The only thing you can grow there is cows. These places are critical migratory habitat for grassland bird populations moving from Canada to the tropics. And even some endemic shorebirds like long-billed curlew. These same landscapes are also where most of the new wind energy development is landing. And new development is happening very quickly. Too quickly to monitor what it means for wildlife populations that are used to flat, open plains with only cattle to contend with.

If we arent careful, we'll lose the shortgrass prairie to energy development just like we lost the tallgrass prairie to corn.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:46AM (#26214899)
Desert solar is certainly going to be part of the story, but I can’t imagine that we can feasibly power the whole country with desert solar alone, and I don’t think residential solar will be a significant contributor because you lose the efficiencies of scale afforded by acres and acres of collocated, homogeneous, ground-level panels for construction, maintenance, and operation. Consider even the overhead of dealing with thousands of individual property owners rather than a single land owner (if that—the utility may own the land for a solar farm outright).
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by nicoburns on Sunday February 21, 2021 @05:03PM (#26217705)
> I don’t think residential solar will be a significant contributor because you lose the efficiencies of scale afforded by acres and acres of collocated, homogeneous, ground-level panels for construction, maintenance, and operation.

But what you lost in scale you gain in:

- Lack of distribution costs. Roof-top solar (esp. when combined with storage) can be consumed at the point of generation.

- Distribution of maintenance costs. Right now the biggest cost is installation. But it doesn't seem at all infeasible that this could be simplified to the point that it is something that people could easily install themselves.

Places like Germany already have somewhat significant contributions from rooftop solar.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @05:53PM (#26218182)
> Lack of distribution costs

What are the "distribution costs"? Presumably any cost besides the cost of infrastructure to connect to the grid are negligible, and you have to pay the infrastructure cost anyway (or rather, if you pay to over provision on production and storage such that you can be truly off-grid, then you're going to be paying far more than the infrastructure costs).

> Distribution of maintenance costs. Right now the biggest cost is installation. But it doesn't seem at all infeasible that this could be simplified to the point that it is something that people could easily install themselves.

I doubt it. First of all, making plans based on some unknown innovation seems, uh, unwise to put it nicely. Secondly, it's very unlikely that such an innovation would reduce the cost of rooftop solar but not farmed solar. Thirdly, such an innovation seems very unlikely since we already have ubiquitous tasks that every home needs (electrical, plumbing, roofing, dry-wall) for which we still hire professionals--the ubiquity hasn't manifested an innovation that lowers the technical barrier enough that we all do these things ourselves.

Moreover, economies of scale work in the other direction. It's much cheaper to maintain a single 1MW solar farm than it is to maintain 50 20KW rooftop installations.

However, we don't need to speculate about tradeoffs. According to https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-..., rooftop solar costs 2-3 times as much as farmed solar, so it seems the economies of scale dwarf any advantages rooftop solar might convey.

> Places like Germany already have somewhat significant contributions from rooftop solar.

If I'm understanding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany correctly, solar only accounts for 8.2% of German electrical capacity and of that 14% comes from rooftop solar. So something like 1% of Germany's capacity comes from rooftop solar?

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by afterburner on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:55AM (#26214979)
All those individuals will respond to the incentive of cheaper energy bills by installing roof solar voluntarily. Provided their government doesn't pass pro-fossil fuel legislation that actively punishes that decision, as some have.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by EricE on Monday February 22, 2021 @02:13PM (#26229033)
Voluntary installation was driven by subsidies.

Once the subsidies dried up, the snake oil salesmen came out. Timeshare hawkers are evil, but they have NOTHING on rooftop solar companies.

And in Nevada the regs changed and now people aren't getting paid for what they generate at anywhere near the same level which further levels the "value proposition".

Home solar was always propped up and if adoption has dropped off significantly in climates that are prime for it - it has zero chance elsewhere in the country.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @01:48PM (#26215983)
I’m not talking about persuading people to install solar, I’m talking about the sheer bureaucratic work (on the part of the utility) to manage contracts with thousands of property owners instead of just one. Similarly, the overhead of servicing thousands of roof-top installations (scheduling appointments, driving to sites, climbing onto the roof, etc) versus a single contiguous site at ground level. I don’t think residential solar is a major feature of any serious green energy plan, and for good reason.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by FooHentai on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:04PM (#26216601)
I don’t follow. You could make the same argument about communal water heating versus having a heater in each home, yet of course such a position would be absurd.

Millions of individual homes running their own solar, even with everybody hooked up for exporting, is quite feasible. It’s happening today.

Having it be an arrangement where a power provider owns and maintains the panels isn’t necessary or desirable. Lease-to-own or outright purchase by homeowners works fine.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @05:22PM (#26217873)
> You could make the same argument about communal water heating versus having a heater in each home, yet of course such a position would be absurd.

If we could cheaply and efficiently transport hot water over miles and miles like we can with electricity then communal water heating would be much more common. Note that communal water heating is fairly normal (i.e., not "absurd") in large apartment, condominium, and commercial office buildings (one large boiler providing hot water for all tenants).

> Millions of individual homes running their own solar, even with everybody hooked up for exporting, is quite feasible. It’s happening today.

The question isn't whether there's an issue hooking individual residential solar installations up to the grid--no one disputes that. The relevant question is how expensive is it to build and maintain tens of millions of individual rooftop solar installations versus several orders of magnitude fewer, larger installations. According to https://www.solarreviews.com/blog/what-is-a-solar-farm-do-i-..., it would cost at least ~$2.8M to generate 1MW via rooftop solar systems while it would cost only about ~$1M to generate the same amount of energy via solar farm.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by rhodozelia on Sunday February 21, 2021 @07:40PM (#26219026)
Given that residential customers pay quite a bit more than the wholesale rate for power rooftop solar must be an investment that pays for itself or nobody would do it!
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @08:24PM (#26219515)
No one is disputing that it pays for itself, but that doesn’t mean it competes with farmed solar.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by rhodozelia on Sunday February 21, 2021 @08:42PM (#26219695)
Uh ... it does compete with farmed solar? Anyone deciding whether to buy power from the utility or generate their own is doing the analysis to see which “wins” the competition.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @09:15PM (#26219979)
I wouldn’t call 2-3X the price “competition” and whether people were buying rooftop solar doesn’t refute the cost analysis.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by opo on Sunday February 21, 2021 @09:35PM (#26220129)
The issue isn't so much the number of birds, but the type:

>...Although fatality rates for raptors may be lower compared to passerines, raptors are especially vulnerable to collisions due to their flight behaviors. Given the life history traits of raptors (i.e., long-lived and low reproductive rates) their populations are more at risk of decline from the number of different sources of impacts that affect these species on a daily basis.

https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds/...

This isn't to say that means we should drop wind, but we shouldn't hand wave away the issue and pretend it is not an issue.

>...You know you can set up solar panels on roofs,

The levelized cost for residential rooftop solar is at least as high as nuclear, but that cost doesn't seem to matter to some advocates.

>...and in the desert, right?

Advocates also describe how we will rebuild the electrical grid to move vast amounts of solar or wind power across the USA. This will not be cheap or easy or particularly easy to protect from terrorism. Even the relatively small proposed Tres Amos SuperStation hasn’t been completed yet. This cost doesn't seem to matter to some advocates.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by vlovich123 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:39AM (#26214831)
Deserts are not ecosystems devoid of all life. Here’s a life long anti-nuclear activist talking about how his direct experience in this space evolved as he started looking into the data more:

https://www.ted.com/talks/michael_shellenberger_why_i_change...

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by hannob on Sunday February 21, 2021 @01:53PM (#26216023)
You know that by now he's a climate denialist? (Technically he would probably deny that, but he's published a lot of "stop these climate alarmists" messaging lately.)

(Update: Can't reply to the reply, but here's some actual scientists on Shellenbergers latest output https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/article-by-michael-sh... )

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by Stupulous on Sunday February 21, 2021 @02:14PM (#26216205)
Characterizing people who take a nuanced stance as denying science, and then disregarding the things they say is a bad path to take. If he's said things that are untrue, call them out. If he's said true things that you think imply he believes untrue things, you should make an effort to change your model to one that incorporates all truth. This is directed more at your approach than it is in defense of Shellenburger, but I'll happily read rebuttals of his points in replies to this comment if you or others are so inclined.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by durandal1 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @02:22PM (#26216279)
I have not seen him in any way deny climate change, what he does is trying to reason trough the probabilities of outcomes and figure out where it makes sense to focus our efforts. We must understand the threats to efficiently counter them, and fear mongering around edge case outcomes does not help.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by EricE on Monday February 22, 2021 @02:15PM (#26229044)
Climate denialist? What, does he claim weather doesn't exist - period?

You probably think science can be settled too?

[dead]
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by throwaway894345 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @11:47AM (#26214906)
Can you please contribute something other than snark?
[dead]
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by vlovich123 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @01:39PM (#26215898)
Why do you think I’m saying it’s an either or? Wind and solar are an important part of the energy mix. But if you truly care about minimizing the impact our energy use has on the world around us, you have to take a mix of all of it. Wind and solar alone will never rid us of fossil fuels on their own. Nuclear has lots of important properties that make it a much better overall true replacement for our fossil fuel dependence. The data clearly shows that wind and solar paradoxically increase fossil fuel usage. The reason is they lower the cost of energy, which attracts more industry, which requires more fossil fuels in the situations where/when it doesn’t work. Batteries and stored hydro power help but don’t fully solve the problem due to scale/cost. You don’t have to buy the causation argument. We have pretty compelling and consistent A/B environments here to observe the correlation that when you add renewables + nuclear you reduce fossil fuel usage. You add renewables alone, they do not displace fossil fuels.

“Deserts are big” isn’t a compelling argument to me. Oceans are even bigger yet I’m still unhappy with how much pollution goes into them. The only thing deserts have for them is that it’s easy for humans to ignore them and it’s politically easier than “omg scary nucular” (ignoring the fact that coal plants, even so-called “clean coal” emit more radiation in one year than a nuclear plant does over its entire lifetime).

Think of it this way. We still have no data that indicates wind and/or solar can displace coal/gas as energy sources. They primarily displace about 10-20% of our energy mix that usually is other sources anyway (geothermal, hydro, natural gas, etc).

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by cygx on Sunday February 21, 2021 @02:46PM (#26216466)
We still have no data that indicates wind and/or solar can displace coal/gas as energy sources.

Germany, 2010:

    Coal+Oil+Gas      55%
    Nuclear           25%
    Wind+Solar+Hydro  13%
Germany, 2020:

    Coal+Oil+Gas      36%
    Nuclear           12%
    Wind+Solar+Hydro  41%
Source: https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE...
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by runsWphotons on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:15PM (#26216714)
These numbers can be looked at two ways. Germany actually failed in its efforts to get off the coal so far, I think. Just from these numbers you could as easily be making his point as yours.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by cygx on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:39PM (#26216948)
Germany actually failed in its efforts to get off the coal so far

There was no way to 'fail' such efforts, because until last year, there was no actual roadmap for getting rid of coal.

Instead, there were CO2 reduction goals. We were going to miss the mark for 2020 (40% reduction compared to 1990), but thanks to Covid, we've actually met the target...

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by runsWphotons on Sunday February 21, 2021 @10:06PM (#26220385)
Thank you for the correction regarding the reduction goals. I wasn't aware the targets were new, or that Covid had changed the picture from articles I read last year. Still, I think my point stands that the numbers can be taken two ways. If you compare France which has a heavy reliance on nuclear---it has something like <10% contribution from fossil fuel sources. It could be that if Germany had increased its nuclear contribution, along with trying to increase the other renewables, the coal/gas numbers would be even lower.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by vlovich123 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @05:56PM (#26218207)
Carbon dioxide emissions from consumption of energy Germany: 847.6 million Mt (2017 est.) France: 341.2 million Mt (2017 est.)

Germany: 57% from non-co2 sources France: 69% (50% from nuclear, 19% wind/solar/hydro)

https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/germany.france/e...

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by cygx on Sunday February 21, 2021 @06:36PM (#26218493)
Note that the difference shrinks to a factor 2 if you consider per capita values.

That's still bad, no argument: France splits atoms, while Germany burns lignite, and peat aside, that's as bad as it gets as far as CO2 goes.

However, that's beside the point: The fact remains that Germany did move a significant amount of electricity generation from fossil fuels to renewables.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by rhodozelia on Sunday February 21, 2021 @07:33PM (#26218953)
They could have moved even more power consumption off of fossil fuels had they not freaked out after fukashima and turned all their reactors off!
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by cygx on Monday February 22, 2021 @02:42AM (#26221852)
You have to factor in political opposition by energy companies and unions. So I'd have expected that the bare minimum to hit our reduction goals would have been done. Given that we did manage to hit our goal, things might not have looked much different even in a world where nuclear plants had been kept alive...
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by philipkglass on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:11PM (#26216669)
coal plants, even so-called “clean coal” emit more radiation in one year than a nuclear plant does over its entire lifetime

That is incorrect. You may be thinking of this Scientific American article:

"Coal Ash Is More Radioactive Than Nuclear Waste"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...

Which is a garbled retelling of this 1978 report:

"Radiological Impact of Airborne Effluents of Coal and Nuclear Plants"

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/202/4372/1045.abstrac...

The point of the 1978 report was that radioactive elements from coal are more likely to be concentrated in the food supply and retained in the body than radioactive elements released from power reactors. That leads to an effective higher radiation dose to people under their modeling assumptions. But nuclear reactors release more becquerels (or curies, to use the older unit) of radioactive material to the environment.

You can see this difference if you look at the original publication via sci-hub.

https://sci-hub.se/10.1126/science.202.4372.1045

Table 2 shows an estimated airborne release of about 1.2 curies per year of radionuclides from a 1000 MWe coal plant.

Table 3 shows shows an estimated airborne release in excess of 5000 curies per year of radionuclides from a 1000 MWe nuclear reactor.

But since the reactor radionuclides do not biologically concentrate in food or bones, they are dispersed throughout the environment and human exposure is small.

In table 5 you can see that the whole body population dose commitments for the different sources, in man-rem/year, are 18-23 for coal (depending on stack height) and 13 for a nuclear reactor. So coal is worse but far from 50x worse. Looking exclusively at bone exposure, coal can be an order of magnitude worse since radium released from coal behaves chemically like calcium and concentrates in bones.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by jscipione on Sunday February 21, 2021 @01:58PM (#26216074)
According to the EPA: "Generally, [coal] wastes are only slightly more radioactive than the average soil in the United States. The amount of natural radiation in wastes from coal-fired power plants is so small that no precautions need to be taken."

https://www.epa.gov/radtown/radioactive-wastes-coal-fired-po...

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by nitrogen on Sunday February 21, 2021 @02:19PM (#26216251)
That page doesn't actually give any numbers.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by ip26 on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:45PM (#26217000)
Hah, that’s a great point- for all the hand wringing about bird strikes, none of the concern trolls are saying a thing about outdoor housecats.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by mannerheim on Sunday February 21, 2021 @01:34PM (#26215839)
How many eagles are killed by housecats?
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by jessaustin on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:01PM (#26216589)
Bald eagles, if that's what you mean, are a "least concern" species. That makes sense, because while in my neighborhood we never saw them several decades ago, now I see them multiple times a month. The other day I saw a family of four perched in a dead tree. Somehow they've overcome the dual menace of housecats and wind generation. Now that we've scaled back on DDT, the bald eagle is fine.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by mannerheim on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:12PM (#26216691)
Bald eagles and golden eagles are still protected species - unless, of course, you're running a wind farm, in which case you're exempt from these sorts of regulations.[0]

0: https://apnews.com/article/b8dd6050c702467e8be4b1272a3adc87

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by jessaustin on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:33PM (#26216883)
At that link, we learn that the industry is prohibited from killing 4200 a year, which number would have a negligible effect on the population and of which number the industry has only ever killed a tiny fraction. Far more eagles die from automobile impact than from wind generation. Eagles are flying coyotes. So long as we aren't actively poisoning them, we can coexist just fine.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by mannerheim on Sunday February 21, 2021 @03:41PM (#26216958)
There are fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs of golden eagle in the U.S. But perhaps killing 20% of the population annually would have a negligible effect.
Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by jessaustin on Monday February 22, 2021 @12:28PM (#26227276)
This is silly. Your own link, above, has wind generation deaths for both golden and the vastly more common bald eagles as a small portion of the 500/yr figure that also includes more common causes such as automobile strikes. You're not really worried about this fanciful issue.

You would have more fun if you trolled using one of your established HN accounts instead of a greenbean.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by mannerheim on Monday February 22, 2021 @07:15PM (#26232389)
Oh yes, this is very silly, as opposed to bringing up the number of birds killed by housecats. Housecats kill so many more birds than automobile strikes too, after all. I'm sure we can't worry about those deaths until we euthanise all cats, this isn't fanciful at all.

This is my first and only HN account, but I thank you for the warm welcome.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by Nasrudith on Sunday February 21, 2021 @04:54PM (#26217627)
Vanishingly few - the housecats are the ones threatened - bald eagles eat them for one. Second two smaller ones seldom dawdle on the ground and are neither easy to ambush nor an easy fight even assuming a type small enough to be a threat.

An eagle would need to be essentially already doomed in the wild or very young in a too obvious and accessible unguarded nest which could be threatened by say a squirrel nest raiding.

Re:Activists who embrace nuclear power by mannerheim on Sunday February 21, 2021 @05:30PM (#26217953)
Precisely. Housecats kill more birds than wind turbines, but a pigeon is not an eagle, owl, hawk, or other large predatory birds. Might as well start talking about insects is we're lumping flying animals all together.