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A comment on Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election. Parent comment

Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election by notahacker on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:36PM (#26196328)
Whilst your second sentence is true, belief that Trump would be declared the winner of the election even after he lost is something highly skewed towards people inclined to believe Trump and Trumpists' claims about electoral fraud,- Mike Pence having the casting vote etc.

And the most obvious reason why not enough unbiased cryptoenthusiasts were tempted to place massive bets on something already decided to correct the odds was suspicion that the oracles might be too biased in favour of Trump being the real president for them to be sure of the easy profit the odds implied

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Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election by whatshisface on Friday February 19, 2021 @01:41PM (#26196386)
There's another possibility, which is that "Crypto people," are another isolated pocket separate from any mainstream faction, that come up with their own weird beliefs for their own divergent reasons. An uncorrelated niche faction would be expected to go closer to one mainstream faction's beliefs over another's about half the time.
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