In the US, it's probably going to be more like late summer/early fall for truly widespread vaccination at which point, I have trouble believing things don't open back up because at that point, people are going to be "We've done what we can. F' it. We're not continuing like this indefinitely."

But, truth be told, come late spring especially younger people are going to be out and about and restrictions are going to start to be widely ignored even if they're still officially in place.