And yet, everything gets rebuilt in place, the same way, the same risks. No engineering improvements. No buried cables (which do just fine in storms).
Most everyone in my neighborhood has some sort of generator, and we're well inside the dense part of the city.
West Seattle neighborhoods have more buried cables than most, and they're facing some very expensive reliability issues due to IIRC dielectric breakdown.
If Seattle wanted to squeeze better reliability out of their aerial transmission systems, they could move to a four-year tree clearance pruning cycle, like Portland. Last I heard, we're still on a five year cycle and every time changing it comes up, it's seen as cost prohibitive.
We get the reliability we're willing to pay for.
As an example, a mall near me was without power for weeks after flooding destroyed some underground electric infrastructure. The flooding didn't even do any real harm to the mall! They just got unlucky: underground lines and other equipment that should be waterproof weren't, and they shorted out in such a way that a bunch of stuff had to be dug up and replaced.
If I hear about issues it's generally extremely local or an issue with power generation (we're predicted to have more issues in the future due to our gov being idiots void of long term thinking when it came to replacing old nuclear plants)
So all in all I haven't experienced this being down longer issue (and yes flooding shouldn't be able to destroy underground lines and such.)
See https://www.slu.se/globalassets/ew/org/centrb/cbm/bilder/for...
I'd have loved to be in that design meeting: "Look, we could just build a huge saw and attach it to a helo." - "Ok, sounds fine, what could possibly go wrong?
The street I live on has underground cables (the overhead lines go underground for my street) has never had a cable failure, though fallen trees have blocked the road. That latter gets straightened out by the neighbors, as many have chainsaws and always look for an opportunity to use them :-)
(Seattle neighborhoods have lots of trees!)
Wasn't it so Texans could continue to live in the fantasy world that they could secede from the US any time they wanted?
[0]https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-02-17/texas-seve...
Is Texas doomed by its history to live with the cold-vulnerable infrastructure that led up to these problems, on account of the way things were decades ago? Of course not - things will be fixed.
Trying to explain this policy choice in terms of the current political climate is ahistorical and a little strange. How could an informed person believe the current governor has anything to do with decision dating to the 1930s? However, that's the kind of explanation you were offering, and that's what I'm objecting to: this curious recency bias, so prevalent in tech forums, where everything that happened more than 10 years ago is not real.
*Denying that it is a constraint does not alter the fact that your argument, such as it is, depends on it being one.
If you are tempted to post further (I am sure you are), I suggest that you first read what I actually wrote in my original post in this thread.
At this point, it would be better for you to acknowledge it is nonsense, rather than give the impression that you still cannot figure out that it is.
Are you uncomfortable supporting your position?
Unlike you, I am not. It simply comes back to an issue that you have been avoiding for quite a while:
All of today's grids started with smaller, less-connected entities. That is not an adequate justification for the current situation. The idea that Texas alone is somehow constrained, by forces beyond its control, from changing with the times, is absurd.
A lot of people have focused on Texas's separate grid policy.
And do I really need to explain to you how it shows that your comment is irrelevant? I suppose I do, given that we are here. It is just this: since the beginning of Texas' grid (as you say, decades ago - almost a century) there has been plenty of opportunity for Texas to make not just its grid, but its entire energy infrastructure, more resilient. Far from my case being one of recency bias, the reality is that your reply to it suffers from the opposite fallacy - a fallacy so obviously wrong that it may not occur often enough to have a recognized name.
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/led-lead/
The reason you "untroduced [sic]" it, of course, was "that that [sic]" it distracts from your backwards projection of current events, which is why your post is is utterly irrelevant to an analysis of what has recently happened, and, more specifically, is utterly irrelevant to the article you were commenting on.
And do I really need to explain to you why your points are irrelevant? I suppose that I do, given that we are here. It is just this: the article actually discusses national winterization standards versus those of Texas, and points out both that other southern states have experienced power disruptions due to the cold, and that the national winterization standards are neither stricter than those of Texas nor strict enough to address the events of recent days. Far from my case being based on a fallacy so obviously wrong that it may not occur often enough to have a recognized name, the reality is that your reply suffers from one that is well known and quite common among your ilk: recency bias.
You are now attempting to argue against, not what I posted, but an entirely imaginary reply.
At least it seems that it has finally dawned on you that the argument you presented in your first reply to me, which, in its entirety, was "Texas's separate grid dates back decades, and was driven by a conscious desire to optimize for the needs of manufacturing. It doesn't have anything to do with climate-change denial or the current governor" is utterly irrelevant, both to the energy infrastructure / climate problem in general, and my specific post - though it took ten exchanges in which it was explained to you, multiple times, why it is irrelevant, for you to get it. We will see if you will have the integrity to acknowledge how utterly mistaken your original reply was.
It seems like you still don't get it. We will see if you will have the integrity to acknowledge how utterly mistaken your original reply was.
Well, it is certainly possible that they are irrelevant, but I see that you have given up any pretense of justifying that claim.
On the one hand, given how badly your earlier attempts to make that case went, I can see why you would want to avoid another try. On the other, as the person making the claims has demonstrated such a poor record on critical thinking here, why would anyone just accept it?
And these are claims, I may add, that you recently doubled-down on once again, as in this statement:
>Far from my case being based on a fallacy so obviously wrong that it may not occur often enough to have a recognized name, the reality is that your reply suffers from one that is well known and quite common among your ilk: recency bias.
The thing about parody is that it doesn't work if the premise is false! And what premise was behind this version of your claim of recency bias? Explicitly this: "the article actually discusses national winterization standards versus those of Texas, and points out both that other southern states have experienced power disruptions due to the cold, and that the national winterization standards are neither stricter than those of Texas nor strict enough to address the events of recent days."
For one thing, I had only just before pointed out that the fact that multiple states were unprepared does not excuse any one of them. Secondly, what sort of claim could both be an example of recency bias, and be refuted by the statement of yours that I have just quoted? For example, if someone said "only Texas was affected", it would be refuted by that statement of yours, but it would simply have been a false statement about a recent event. That would not be recency bias!
Your other basis for claiming recency bias is "Texas's separate grid dates back decades, and was driven by a conscious desire to optimize for the needs of manufacturing", but as Texas was free to respond to more recent warnings about the inadequacy of its energy infrastructure, its failure to do so at that time is, of course, more relevant than the facts you quote about a much earlier time. This is not recency bias!
As for calling this a "dishonest, cowardly act", that's the sort of rhetoric that most people give up after childhood. It is that, rather than the substantive issues that many knowledgeable people have been raising, which does not belong in public dialogue. You seem to be annoyed that this thread has demonstrated a complete failure of critical analysis on your part (a situation that your latest reply has done nothing to repair), but it is entirely of your own doing.
There are northern states with better winterization, but that is easily explainable with reference to the obvious difference in weather. Even given that, significant blackouts -- like the northeast blackout of 2003 -- have occurred in areas with quite a different political climate than Texas. The US grid has overall shown a low level of preparedness.
And when politicians start saying things like the debacle being preferable to federal regulation, it absolutely is reasonable to ask whether Texas' failure to heed the warnings of experts was overly influenced by ideological concerns...
The only winterization recommendations that would have made a difference for Texas came from within the Texas energy sector itself. What are you talking about, here?
It is, of course, irrelevant where the criticism of the existing infrastructure came from, what is relevant is that it was not acted on, and therefore, the question of why it was not acted on is very pertinent, just as I have been saying from the beginning. And, for the third or fourth time, you are trying a slightly different version of the nonsensical notion that if other jurisdictions' infrastructure is not perfect, then what led to Texas' debacle is a question that should not be asked.
Furthermore, your newly-found claim that Texas' infrastructure was criticized from within can only raise additional questions of why such recommendations were ignored - was the Texas energy sector prevented from implementing its own recommendations?
>Dishonesty is the sort of rhetoric...
This is just a continuation of the childish outburst in your previous post, which does nothing to rehabilitate your reputation for critical thinking, which has been thoroughly trashed, by your own hand, in this thread.
Furthermore, your newly-found claim that Texas' infrastructure was criticized from within...
You are not being truthful, here. Consider the comment of mine that you first replied to, where I wrote:
...the national winterization standards are neither stricter than those of Texas nor strict enough to address the events of recent days.
Of course the question of why these warnings were ignored needs to be asked, and to anyone who understands anything about human nature, it is obvious that your insistence that certain questions should not be asked is the purely political position here.
The problem here is not with asking the question, but how you chose to answer it: by bringing up partisan irrelevancies, in order to tell a divisive fable.
The full text of that comment is "This is not a fair reading of the article. It actually discusses national winterization versus those of Texas, and points out both that other southern states have experienced power disruptions due to the cold, and that the national winterization standards are neither stricter than those of Texas nor strict enough to address the events of recent days", and I would be interested to see how you can find "the only winterization recommendations that would have made a difference for Texas came from within the Texas energy sector itself" in there (it does, of course, contain the seeds of one of your absurd ideas - that other entities' failings excuse those of Texas - but that unshakeable non-sequitur is a separate issue.)
- And even if that was somehow what you intended to say, then it would merely mean that you have been flying with no visible means of support for longer than I thought. Anyway, thanks for acknowledging that fact in your recent post, as otherwise I would never have guessed that you recognize it as being so!
I do see that, in another thread, you wrote "there's no solution that works if we don't hold regulators accountable and the regulators don't hold the industry accountable." Yes, indeed - recognizing, of course, that the state executive and legislature have considerable control over the regulatory process, and a corresponding responsibility in the debacle.
The comment I replied to was not a fair reading of the article, and left out both a lot of what the article said and a lot of what was important to understanding the situation.
In 2014 the polar vortex brought power down across the Eastern Interconnection (citation 13) and again in 2018 (citation 10).
> That suggest to me the national regulator has these extreme weather events covered.
There currently are not standards for winter weatherization. In 2013 standards were proposed for this however they were rejected (citation 15). Finally in 2020 standards started the approval process however they wont be fully approved until November.
Here is a write up of that event:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/07/us-polar-vorte...
Not a single mention of blackout.
And the reason for that is the grid is well designed and has backup options that makes it resiliently to extreme weather events.
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri all had blackouts this week. The SPP had to stop sharing electricity with the Texas grid because they had no spare capacity due to dealing with their own power emergencies.
The headlines this week have all focused on Texas, but this was happening over the entire region.
Or are you saying these states have experienced short term blackouts?
I don't think there is an electricity grid in the world that is immune to short term blackouts.
Yes. That grid operator did have to implement EEA3 load shedding (rolling blackouts). However, I should note that the Texas rolling blackout seemed to go wrong when they tried to bring locations back online.
85% of the people I know plus myself had over 24 hrs of contiguous down time.
But if you want to play “move the goalposts”, I’m not going to bother trying to discuss something with you that you obviously have already made your mind up on. Keep stubbornly believing what you want to believe, I don’t care.
For example Texas has seen millions people with out power for days, millions people with no running water for days, people dying because of the cold.
And the exact same think is going on in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri but no one is reporting on this in the news or on social media?
I think not.
> Feb. 16 at 6:15 a.m. SPP declared an EEA Level 3. System-wide generating capacity had dropped below current load of approximately 42 gigawatts (GW) due to extremely low temperatures, inadequate supplies of natural gas and wind generation. SPP directed member utilities to implement controlled, temporary interruptions of service.
That's just for residential customers, commercial and industrial customers were required to shed a great deal of their load; for half a work day according to one report I read of someone who what sent home yesterday or so.
Agreed not anything like being without power for multiple days. From what I've gathered so far, the Texas grid operator had the lack of courage required to shed load early before things get catastrophic. After the northeast blackout of 1965 which resulted in a lot of reforms, a common if not nearly universal final cause of these sorts of disasters.
https://youtu.be/NUa3AKdCYvM?t=693
(Just wanting to set the record straight, under the SPP region myself. Given what I've seen, I'm pretty happy with how they've acted considering it could have looked like Texas. I wish there had been more and better communication with the public about the importance of conserving electricity but it's not like I followed their Twitter feed at the time.)
The blackouts in the MISO and SPP areas were not as bad, but still had to happen to weather (pardon the pun) generator failures.
They’re very different problems to handle.
Texas had huge parts of its grid fail and leave millions of people without power for multiple days. Other states had minutes long rolling blackouts.
They are both cold weather power problems in the way that getting a cut on your hand cutting a bagel and dropping a running chainsaw on your leg are both injuries. The significance comes from the severity.
The article spends 90% of the time describing problems in the Texas grid.
The only mention of the nation problem is this throw away line at the end:
> The issue of extreme cold weather and electrical outages is a national issue that needs to be addressed. However, after repeated failings it hasn’t really been addressed.
Now that statement would make sense if 'extreme cold weather' had caused problems in other parts of the USA.
But to date I only know of two such events and both occurred in Texas.
To make matters worse the national energy regulator warned Texas this would most likely happen again:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/texas-was...
That suggest to me the national regulator has these extreme weather events covered.