You honestly believe someone can just pop up, get some deal with a hardware manufacturer/create their own hardware, create their own OS, and stay afloat as long as people start developing for it? Aaand even after a minimum feature set is achieved it will still be nowhere usable as a mobile phone, because bank N will not make an app for it, you can use facebook on it in the web browser, etc. Goddamn Microsoft failed at it. And as I said there is a reason behind it, the more platform there is, the more every company on Earth has to pay for development of their apps. And that magic number seems to be stuck at 2.

Unless there is a newcomer with crazy good compatibility, nothing will change.