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Re:How this Ends by lifeisstillgood on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @03:24PM (#26171209)
As someone who has called 9 of the last 2 recessions I do t know where to go with this sort of prediction- even if (I do) I agree with it.

There is "too much easy money". Well not in my pocket, and despite my privileged position both professionally and as an HNer I cannot easily see how to raise a series A to grab some.

And when we do see Treasury bills reach 2%, then what will I do - close down my startup ? resign my job?

Winter is coming. Keep farming, build a grain store perhaps, but we will keep farming.

Re:How this Ends by icedchai on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @03:58PM (#26171682)
I'm guessing we won't see 2% for at least 6 to 8 years. Look how long it took for rates to get to 2% after the Great Recession.
Re:How this Ends by lumost on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @09:10PM (#26174624)
at current trajectories could the govt afford 2% in 8 years? we seem to have reached a point where the system requires the money printer.
Re:How this Ends by z3ugma on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @09:35PM (#26174789)
Modern monetary theory is an interesting look at this that says “print money to pay for the things you need; you only raise taxes to pull money back out of the economy so that inflation doesn’t skyrocket”
Re:How this Ends by lumost on Thursday February 18, 2021 @09:40AM (#26180255)
This presumes that the government can tax and print money equally amongst market participants, and that the economy doesn't re-arrange itself to capture the money printer.

As a counter point one could imagine a hypothetical implementation of MMT where money was printed in a particular room at particular times of day, and those in the room were able to capture the money. This would of course help the government offload distribution of printed currency and avoid direct corruption. Given the room can only hold so many people those in the room will have had to wheel, deal, and bribe to get make their way in.

As its impossible to have a taxation room as everyone would simply avoid the money pit, the government would of course need to still tax all market participants according to some taxation scheme, presumably the government would tax investments less than income to keep the money velocity from falling.

We'd be left with a hypothetical economy where ~100 individuals/corporations get dollars printed at them and a taxation system which taxes what those individuals happen to spend in the rest of the economy. Creating a natural monopoly for those with a spot in the room.

Re:How this Ends by TrispusAttucks on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @10:07PM (#26175066)
Sure, but this punishes good actors to pay for the government's mismanagement. A republic grows weak when you keep whipping the horse pulling the hardest. When the horse dies. The republic dies.
Re:How this Ends by AngrySkillzz on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @10:22PM (#26175208)
MMT is dumb, it's isomorphic to the current situation only it moves the responsibility for "cooling off" an overheating economy from the central bank (interest rates) to the legislature (taxes). And there is no way the legislature will have the wherewithal to actually raise taxes when it needs to to regulate that system.
Re:How this Ends by throw0101a on Thursday February 18, 2021 @08:51AM (#26179765)
Japan's 10Y bonds haven't seen 2% since 1999:

* https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01JPM156N

Their bonds are negative going out to 7Y:

* https://ca.investing.com/rates-bonds/japan-government-bonds

At those rates why wouldn't one borrow?

Re:How this Ends by xwdv on Wednesday February 17, 2021 @10:17PM (#26175155)
Start with a seed round, this is pretty easy to get if you have a decent application and a sound business plan.

After about a year as long as you have revenues that are growing each month you can get a Series A.

Series B and beyond will be harder but by that point you’ll bring all the right consultants on board for how to do it.

Re:How this Ends by maxrobot on Thursday February 18, 2021 @04:29AM (#26177754)
Easy is maybe overstating it...

Unless can you fund my startup? (Seriously if anyone is a VC dm me and I'll send you my pitch deck)

Re:How this Ends by xwdv on Thursday February 18, 2021 @11:39AM (#26182001)
I could fund a startup's seed round, yes. Maybe several. Would I? Probably not. My ROI would be crap and take too long, compared to just buying stocks. But if I had maybe 5 times more money? Absolutely, wouldn't even care. And best of all, because of the social circles I frequent, I could name at least three others who could do the same.
Re:How this Ends by maxrobot on Monday February 22, 2021 @01:41PM (#26228501)
Care to intro me?