Re:The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble
by ethbr0 on Monday February 15, 2021 @04:01PM
(#26147324)
This is terrifying when you apply it to the housing market: the single largest investment for a large number of Americans.
If they're buying now when prices are historically high, what does that say about their ability to generate home equity returns in the future?
> The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.
With a bit more mathematical rigor: For each of us there will be only one future. In that future, each asset -- company, property, etc. -- will earn a finite cash flow yield. If we pay more for that future cash flow now, our rate of return will be lower in the future.