Show HN: M1 Chart – The stock market adjusted for the US-dollar money supply

Re:Show HN: M1 Chart – The stock market adjusted for the US-... by dragonwriter on Saturday February 13, 2021 @09:16PM (#26129079)

> But interest rates are at 0, so they can't drop anymore

Interest rates are not at zero [0], and interest rates, and their targets, can go negative. [1]

[0] target range is currently 0-0.25%, actual is 0.08%: https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/fed%20funds

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/negative-interest-rate-...

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Re:Show HN: M1 Chart – The stock market adjusted for the US-... by fny on Saturday February 13, 2021 @09:23PM (#26129101)

The fed funds rate are not interest rates writ large however. This is the interest rates banks pay to borrow reserves over a short term. The markets for longer dated securities (i.e. 10Y and 30Y) more accurately reflect interest. The 10 year is currently at 1% and the 30 year at 2%.

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Re:Show HN: M1 Chart – The stock market adjusted for the US-... by dragonwriter on Saturday February 13, 2021 @11:35PM (#26129717)

> The fed funds rate are not interest rates writ large however

They are interest rates and since they are essentially risk free, they ought to be roughly the floor of interest rates that aren't being subsidized by some other consideration.

> The 10 year is currently at 1% and the 30 year at 2%.

I would argue that 1% and 2% are even more clearly greater than 0% than is 0.08% (the recent effective federal funds rate), so that just reinforces the point, to the extent one agrees that they are the relevant interest rates, that interest rates are not currently at 0.

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