>BTC miners make significant money from transaction fees which largely offsets these drops

Today's block subsidy is currently 6.25 BTC, and the amount with fees is around 7.2 BTC. That's nowhere close to the pre-halvening about of 12.5 BTC.

You’re looking backwards not forwards. Assuming transaction fees of 1BTC / block, the next drop isn’t to 3.125 BTC it’s ~4.125 BTC and the drop after that is to 2.5625 not 1.5625. In roughly 3 drops subsidies will be less than block fees.

Not that 1BTC per transaction is anything close to a constant, maximum rewards over the last 3 years where more than 100x minimum rewards, but it does seem independent of block rewards.

The vast majority of BTC miner revenue - around 90% - comes from block rewards:

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

With every halving, assuming price remains constant, BTC miner revenue, and with it, energy expenditure, declines, until it's 10% of current energy expenditure.

You're right that this could pose problems for Bitcoin's security, but that's unrelated to the fact that Bitcoin miners' energy expenditure as a share of BTC price will decline.

It’s nowhere near consistent enough to say 10% going forward, as block rewards per day have been anything from 1400 to 10 BTC per day over the last 3 years.