Re:A terminal stock watcher and stock position tracker
by nostromo on Wednesday February 03, 2021 @03:15PM
(#26018533)
If you're going to pattern match, you're almost always wrong calling any specific moment a bubble.
The S&P 50 has closed within 5% of its all-time high 32% of days for its entirety. 1 out of every 15 days the market closes at an all time high. And the vast, vast majority of those don't end up being the precipice of a crash. In fact, even the ones that do predate a crash almost always end up being perfectly fine times to invest for long-term growth.
The null hypothesis really should be that most markets aren't bubbles. So, a "why is this time it different" argument should be required from people calling it a bubble, not from those saying it's not.
The S&P 50 has closed within 5% of its all-time high 32% of days for its entirety. 1 out of every 15 days the market closes at an all time high. And the vast, vast majority of those don't end up being the precipice of a crash. In fact, even the ones that do predate a crash almost always end up being perfectly fine times to invest for long-term growth.
The null hypothesis really should be that most markets aren't bubbles. So, a "why is this time it different" argument should be required from people calling it a bubble, not from those saying it's not.