Re:Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught
by koonsolo on Monday February 01, 2021 @01:26PM
(#25991604)
I don't see how this would outperform 100% stocks over 10 years.
Or in other words, show me the numbers.
Re:Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught
by lultimouomo on Tuesday February 02, 2021 @03:45AM
(#25998635)
Are you asking if it can outperform total stock (it's pretty clear it can) or if it did?
According to https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-strategy-builder.html (click on "show simulation" and it will show the historical analysis) a 80/20 allocation slightly outperforms total stock over the last 20 years, while having lower volatility at the same time. I did not run the numbers myself.
Considering only the last 10 years seems pretty limited, as you are ignoring both the dot-com bust and the 2008 crisis.
Re:Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught
by Erwin on Monday February 01, 2021 @03:27PM
(#25993378)
You can use a site like this to compare: https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/total-stock-market/ versus https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/classic-60-40/
Mixing bonds gives you a slightly higher safe withdrawal rate but you do lose 2 percentage points average yearly returns.
(You don't need to try and time the market for this to work. You can have a threshold so that you rebalance when you deviate from your target allocation more than X%)