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Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by kelnos on Monday February 01, 2021 @12:49AM (#25985935)
The page you link to does admit, though, that dollar cost averaging minimizes possible downside risk.

Agreed that you shouldn't try to time the market, but it is of course possible that you invest that lump sump at a high, and then see a significant drop soon after. Sure, over time that drop will almost certainly rectify itself, but psychologically you might feel better about buying in over a longer period of time.

Living with slightly lower long-term returns in exchange for peace of mind is a perfectly valid trade off that people can choose to make.

Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by sooheon on Monday February 01, 2021 @02:41AM (#25986487)
That page is inaccurate, according to historical data the downside risk is always greater with dollar cost averaging: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/lump-sum-investing/

This is because there are always two downsides, the risk of investing just before a huge crash, but also the risk of holding out while a boom passes you by. People always psychologically overweight the former due to loss aversion, but the latter is more pernicious.

Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by imtringued on Monday February 01, 2021 @03:07AM (#25986596)
That's what the chart says but what does human behavior say? Does everyone truly ride the crash down and back up or will some of them panic and leave the market before it recovers?

One of those risks a 70% loss the other one merely risks unrealized gains.

Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by sooheon on Monday February 01, 2021 @03:33AM (#25986739)
> Does everyone truly ride the crash down and back up or will some of them panic and leave the market before it recovers?

This is an orthogonal issue. If you DCA for 12 months and then a crash immediately occurs, you suffer the exact same fate (you are worse off than someone who had 12 months of investment returns prior to the crash). Does this mean you should increase DCA horizon to 24 months? The only way your framing makes sense is if you have prior knowledge that a crash will occur during the DCA period.

Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by OscarCunningham on Monday February 01, 2021 @01:16AM (#25986115)
You should choose your asset allocation to fit your risk-reward preferences. Once you've done that it's suboptimal to further reduce risk at the expense of reward by holding more cash for longer.
Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by lmm on Monday February 01, 2021 @01:30AM (#25986182)
So what has the better expected return between a) invest lump sum all at once into a low-volatility portfolio b) invest the lump sum progressively into a slightly higher-volatility portfolio, such that the expected regret remains the same?
Re:It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged by OscarCunningham on Monday February 01, 2021 @01:47AM (#25986257)
It's (a).

The optimal strategy can't possibly be (b), because it would have the bizarre implication that two investors who have exactly the same preferences and who currently have the same amount of wealth would want to allocate their investments differently depending on how far in the past they started investing.

Edit: I'm quite sleepy right now, but I think the way the mathematics works out is that the risk arising from an asset is a convex function of the amount allocated to it. So by Jensen's inequality it's less risky to invest 50/50 in cash and stocks for two years than to invest for one year in cash and one year in stocks, for the same reward.