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Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by strogonoff on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:18AM (#25977364)
I find the notion of China having the virus under control hard to believe.

CCP is known to misinform with less at stake than this, and to not care all that much about large areas of rural territory (recall the one child policy, which was more or less unenforced outside of larger cities and resulted in the depressing phenomenon of millions of “invisible” children who are outside of the system and do not have access to education or healthcare). With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that the virus has been raging over the countryside, unreported.

That is not to say I know one way or the other, but merely to point out that relying on official information may not be correct—one ought to look at secondary signs, such as new hospitals being built or some inconsistencies in numbers. Claiming that centralized measures helped get the virus under control based on official numbers from a totalitarian regime may be disingenuous.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by lordnacho on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:26AM (#25977414)
While it's true they have a reason to misrepresent, I think it would be fairly obvious if hospitals were overrun with patients. The great firewall is not so high that that message wouldn't come out. They had good reason to keep the prison camps in Xinjiang secret too, but that came out, and there's a lot fewer of those than hospitals.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by strogonoff on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:37AM (#25977488)
I just don’t think many messages come out at all (considering bans on inbound travel and recent crackdowns on documentary uses of social media), and especially from outside of larger cities.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by lordnacho on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:48AM (#25977561)
Any population of Chinese speakers in the west is going to know someone there on Wechat. I've talked to friends there as well, there's no major problem now. By contrast when things were bad in Wuhan people were reporting it.

On top of that there's plenty of foreign reporters there, and plenty of foreign diplomats who would also notice.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by josephg on Sunday January 31, 2021 @05:06AM (#25977644)
Yep. The Economist has a journalist over in China, and he was interviewed recently on the economist's podcast. He said covid has popped up a bunch of times since the pandemic started. Each time they've immediately launched strict lockdowns and border controls for the region involved. He's personally been tested 7 times or something since covid started - apparently getting tested is often a requirement to travel anywhere in China.

Those policies sound even more strict than what we've been doing in Australia, and we had 2 weeks with 0 locally transmitted cases. With procedures like that it makes sense they have covid under control.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by strogonoff on Sunday January 31, 2021 @06:08AM (#25977902)
> covid has popped up a bunch of times since the pandemic started

(The times when news got out.)

The ability of Chinese authorities to suppress the information domestically (again, recent crackdowns on using social media for self-journalism), as well as to influence Western sources, shouldn’t be underestimated. I wouldn’t mind listening to that podcast though.

I know about COVID test results required for travel, but I don’t take it as much of an indicator if you consider people outside major cities who do not travel much (especially now that there’s an extra barrier to it) and may just suffer from virus outbreaks in localized clusters where they live.

Either way, what we don’t have is reliable numbers of how many people were tested, and how many of them were positive, across China.