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Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by __blockcipher__ on Sunday January 31, 2021 @03:51AM (#25977235)
SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic, (fairly) highly infectious endemic respiratory virus. Eradication is literally impossible, and even if we could wave a magic wand and simultaneously eradicate it from all humans on earth, you still need to worry about it jumping back over from any of the many animal species infected with it.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eradication_of_infectious_dise...:

> The selection of infectious diseases for eradication is based on rigorous criteria, as both biological and technical features determine whether a pathogenic organism is (at least potentially) eradicable. The targeted organism must not have a non-human reservoir (or, in the case of animal diseases, the infection reservoir must be an easily identifiable species, as in the case of rinderpest), and/or amplify in the environment. This implies that sufficient information on the life cycle and transmission dynamics is available at the time an eradication initiative is programmed. An efficient and practical intervention (such as a vaccine or antibiotic) must be available to interrupt transmission of the infective agent. Studies of measles in the pre-vaccination era led to the concept of the critical community size, the size of the population below which a pathogen ceases to circulate.[2] The use of vaccination programs before the introduction of an eradication campaign can reduce the susceptible population. The disease to be eradicated should be clearly identifiable, and an accurate diagnostic tool should exist. Economic considerations, as well as societal and political support and commitment, are other crucial factors that determine eradication feasibility.[3][4]

SARS-CoV-2 satisfies none of these pre-conditions (except for having a vaccine now). It is not only unrealistic but actively delusional/deleterious to argue for “COVID zero”. Don’t fall for it.

Remember herd immunity doesn’t mean eradication. The virus stays endemic. Which is fine; over the long run the set of all COVID-19-naive individuals becomes dominated by the very young (infants/toddlers), who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by Gatsky on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:13AM (#25977351)
This is a new disease, we don’t know what is going to happen in the future. There could be chronic consequences we don’t know about yet, for example. The virus could evolve to have much higher mortality next year. By allowing it to become endemic, we are also bequeathing it to all future humans. There is surely a more risk aware scenario between endemicity and total eradication.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:08AM (#25977320)
"who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality." With current virus, that could change with each mutation.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by __blockcipher__ on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:11AM (#25977337)
Viruses generally change to be less deadly and more transmissible. The “new variant” is just more transmissible.

It doesn’t make sense to argue “oh what if this virus magically evolves to hurt children”. You need to propose a theoretical mechanism of action. Otherwise spend your time worrying about flu and tuberculosis which kill far more children than COVID-19.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Sunday January 31, 2021 @03:45PM (#25982410)
And it infects children more easily.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by __blockcipher__ on Sunday January 31, 2021 @06:36PM (#25983768)
What’s your point? As I said:

> over the long run the set of all COVID-19-naive individuals becomes dominated by the very young (infants/toddlers), who have essentially zero risk of COVID-19 mortality.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Monday February 01, 2021 @01:37AM (#25986215)
BTW they generally become less deadly because the less deadly spread faster because they don't kill the host, but this virus has a rather long incubation period, so you can have both. Easy spread and higher death rate.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Monday February 01, 2021 @12:49AM (#25985932)
"Babies under 1 year old and children with certain underlying conditions may be more likely to have severe illness from COVID-19." Zero risk?
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by herewegoagain2 on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:27AM (#25977424)
A lot of things COULD happen. For example, a meteor could hit the earth and wipe out all life. Therefore we should pour ALL resources into space exploration, not medicine.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Sunday January 31, 2021 @03:47PM (#25982424)
Compare the probabilities.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by herewegoagain2 on Sunday January 31, 2021 @05:26PM (#25983207)
Yes, please do! I think there is an inflated perception of risk because of the relentless media coverage. Risks are probably still higher than the meteor example, but the point of the example is to call for actual numbers! It's not enough to say "some bad thing COULD happen". Many bad things COULD happen.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by throwaway3699 on Sunday January 31, 2021 @04:42AM (#25977520)
We cannot indefinitely implement totalitarian lockdowns based on the fact that something "might" happen. No joke, that is how dictatorships start.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Sunday January 31, 2021 @03:46PM (#25982417)
Some things are more likely than others.
Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by __blockcipher__ on Sunday January 31, 2021 @06:38PM (#25983786)
Yes, for example ushering in a new totalitarian age is much more likely than a (in children) very mild virus magically becoming super deadly.

I really think you may not have ever read the literature on COVID-19 in children. We should be shouting at the rooftops that kids are safe (and btw transmit less than kids), instead here in California we’ve closed school for a year which will - in children - far surpass the harms of COVID-19 by orders of magnitude.

Re:The Virus Changed. Now We Must ‘Get to Zero’ or Face Cata... by croes on Monday February 01, 2021 @12:50AM (#25985944)
A mild virus? That's some kind of understatement.

"Babies under 1 year old and children with certain underlying conditions may be more likely to have severe illness from COVID-19."