Re:AstraZeneca/EU contract
by dane-pgp on Friday January 29, 2021 @09:47PM
(#25965521)
> What vote do you think is being split? Some kind of generic not-Conservative vote? People vote for other parties - they aren't split among a vote not for the Conservatives.
I think there are a few factors that make things more nuanced than "People vote for other parties". As I mentioned in another comment, FPTP leads to constituencies where people feel that their vote doesn't count, so they either don't vote at all or vote for the "lesser of two evils", which both inflates the support for the Conservatives and also prevents new parties from gaining traction.
> If it really were simple vote splitting then coalitions would form, and they don't
That's a great point, but actually the UK has seen informal coalitions with parties standing down candidates in specific seats. This idea is so entrenched in British politics that it even has its own Wikipedia article.[0] The fact that the Conservatives have been the only major party since WW2 to form a coalition government is mostly due to the fact that in other general elections, the party with the most seats hasn't needed to form a coalition (perhaps with the exception of 1974), and it would make even less sense for the opposition parties to form one.
> Are the Conservatives and Labour splitting the not-SNP vote?
If you look at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election[1] (which uses a voting system that rewards honesty better), the Conservatives and Labour received 44.6% of the constituency vote, combined. That is less than the 46.5% that the SNP received. Even if you add the constituency vote share of the fourth largest party (by seats won), Scottish Green, they still don't match the success of the SNP. In any case, vote splitting is not such a concern under the Additional Members System.
> An absolute popular majority?
I apologise if my "51%" comment was unhelpful. You asked "How much more of a majority do you think it could possibly be?" and I wanted to highlight the fact that 43% isn't any kind of majority at all, but maybe you meant "plurality". In any case, I agree that it would probably be a bad sign if a party had a majority of the popular vote, and I would say it can also be a bad sign if a party gets a majority of seats without a majority of votes. Big parties effectively tend to be coalitions within themselves anyway, so I would prefer if the dynamics of those coalitions were played out on the national political stage, rather than as internal party scheming.
I think there are a few factors that make things more nuanced than "People vote for other parties". As I mentioned in another comment, FPTP leads to constituencies where people feel that their vote doesn't count, so they either don't vote at all or vote for the "lesser of two evils", which both inflates the support for the Conservatives and also prevents new parties from gaining traction.
> If it really were simple vote splitting then coalitions would form, and they don't
That's a great point, but actually the UK has seen informal coalitions with parties standing down candidates in specific seats. This idea is so entrenched in British politics that it even has its own Wikipedia article.[0] The fact that the Conservatives have been the only major party since WW2 to form a coalition government is mostly due to the fact that in other general elections, the party with the most seats hasn't needed to form a coalition (perhaps with the exception of 1974), and it would make even less sense for the opposition parties to form one.
> Are the Conservatives and Labour splitting the not-SNP vote?
If you look at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election[1] (which uses a voting system that rewards honesty better), the Conservatives and Labour received 44.6% of the constituency vote, combined. That is less than the 46.5% that the SNP received. Even if you add the constituency vote share of the fourth largest party (by seats won), Scottish Green, they still don't match the success of the SNP. In any case, vote splitting is not such a concern under the Additional Members System.
> An absolute popular majority?
I apologise if my "51%" comment was unhelpful. You asked "How much more of a majority do you think it could possibly be?" and I wanted to highlight the fact that 43% isn't any kind of majority at all, but maybe you meant "plurality". In any case, I agree that it would probably be a bad sign if a party had a majority of the popular vote, and I would say it can also be a bad sign if a party gets a majority of seats without a majority of votes. Big parties effectively tend to be coalitions within themselves anyway, so I would prefer if the dynamics of those coalitions were played out on the national political stage, rather than as internal party scheming.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_alliance_%28UK%29#...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Scottish_Parliament_elect...