So, just, real quick: has it in the medium-to-recent past been a good idea to bet on the idea that the airline business will be dominated by some new entrant, rather than the major carriers we have now? Since Southwest entered the market, has there been a shakeup in the top tier of airlines that brought a newcomer in? Like, I know Alaska and Jetblue are a big deal, but if airlines were smart phones Delta would be Samsung and Alaska would be, like, LG.
I'm happy to noodle about Delta's prospects, but you can look at his piece and see what he's actually saying about Delta, as an example of how the stock market is fake and props up companies with no prospects. But you know why Delta's 2020 revenues are where they are, and it's not because some permanent shift away from Delta.
I guess he didn't word it very well, because he does seem to suggest that some real businesses aren't doing much. I guess it's like his vampire-squid article, it's hyperbole.
The thing about low rates is we no longer discount the future. If rates were 10% and 2020 happened, Delta would be worth a whole lot less. This would allow new shareholders to buy into it. At the moment things are being valued like they're going to be great forever. Why should we all be tied to a really long and optimistic time horizon? It seems wrong, because there are things that you should expect to happen over 5-15 years.
Well I'm not normally a massive fan of his either. But he does have something here. I don't doubt that airlines will exist in the future, but why exactly must it be the same ones that exist now? The planes and the pilots will still be around, but why should they be run by the same companies? You could ask the same about many crisis era firms, they do something that should survive, but why should they survive? Why shouldn't there be some replacement, and why should the public prevent it? Doesn't this reduce opportunitie for newcomers?