Global real interest rates and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018 (2020)

Re:Global real interest rates and the ‘suprasecular’ decline... by phkahler on Thursday January 28, 2021 @08:50PM (#25952578)

the US budget deficit is rising, soon out of control IMHO. Raising rates is no longer viable without severe consequences.

Nobody has seemed to realize that it's the rate of change in interest rates that has an effect, not the absolute level of them (within reason).

The stock market is one giant bubble.

People talk occasionally about negative interest rates, and wonder how A) that might work and B) how not to have people realize what a house of cards it all is.

But sure, rates are low and everything is great!

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Global real interest rates and the ‘suprasecular’ decline... by anewaccount2021 on Thursday January 28, 2021 @08:57PM (#25952631)

Rates can never rise. Americans and American corporations are too indebted with no room to finance increased debt servicing costs. The dilemma is the longer rates stay low, the more debt is piled on. Ultimately there must be a complete reset.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Global real interest rates and the ‘suprasecular’ decline... by phkahler on Friday January 29, 2021 @06:20AM (#25956181)

Yes. The 2008 bubble popped when the fed made an abrupt upward change in rates. Because housing prices vary inversely with rates, that put people under water. Now imagine the same effect with corporate and government finances on a much larger scale.

[ Parent | on HN ]