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Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by 317070 on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:14PM (#25935481)
There is 1 company, that company has 1 stock. Alice is the shorter and expects the stock to drop.

* How shorting works normally:

Alice thinks the price will lower this week. On Monday, Alice borrows a stock from Bob. She sells that stock immediately on Monday. On Friday at the end of that week, she buys a stock again and hands it back to Bob, plus a small fee for his troubles. If the stock price went down during the week, you can see that Alice made a profit.

* What happened for Gamestop:

Melvin thinks the price will lower this year. Melvin borrows a stock from Rudy. Melvin sells that stock, and unbeknown to him he sells it back to Rudy. Melvin borrows another stock from Rudy which unbeknown to him he sells again to Rudy. While there exists only 1 stock, Rudy now has 3 stocks of which he borrowed 2 to Melvin. Melvin owes Rudy 200% of all available stock, which he needs to hand back at the end of the year.

* What is the short squeeze Rudy/Reddit is currently doing on Melvin Capital?

Well, in reality, Melvin Capital has 1.5 stocks borrowed for every stock in existence (I'm not sure how much of the total stock was actually liquid, so I'm not sure how many rounds Melvin needs to go through to cover all their shorts).

Today it is the end of the year. Melvin needs to hand Rudy back the stock. However, the only person he could buy it from, is Rudy himself. Now Rudy is free to set an arbitrary price for his stock AND meanwhile buy up all other available stock at ridiculous prices. The only stock Melvin can buy, is from Rudy, or from other people at at least Rudy's price point. And Melvin needs to buy that stock to then hand it back to Rudy, after which Rudy can sell it yet again at an even higher price point for Melvin to hand it back again. Rudy makes a lot of profit, by squeezing out Melvin after making the market illiquid and overpriced. Effectively, the game is such that the entire capital of Melvin is now for Rudy. Melvin must buy something from Rudy, no matter how high Rudy sets his price.

An alternative is for Melvin to borrow another stock from Rudy, handing it back to cover for the last borrow. However, this way Melvin is only digging himself into an even deeper hole stacking up fees (the fee Melvin pays for Rudy's troubles is currently at a 130% interest rate).

* What is on the line?

Melvin Capital is 3 billion. The question is how much Reddit is Rudy, how much stock Reddit managed to control. If Reddit manages the squeeze, the squeezers will basically share among each other 3 billion. If Reddit does not manage, a lot of people will hold a lot of Gamestop stock at probably way lower prices than they bought.

Melvin Capital appears to have received a capital injection of 3 billion from Citadel today, doubling the stakes in an all or nothing with Reddit. So wallstreetbets is now standing to either gain 6 billion or losing a lot of money. Which sounds big to us, but is probably just another Wednesday for wallstreetbets...

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by abledon on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:29PM (#25935642)
Melvin has actually 13 Billion (AUM): https://aum13f.com/firm/melvin-capital-management-lp ? ? ?

they would be forced to liquidate their other holdings before going bankrupt no?

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by selectodude on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @08:21PM (#25936847)
Due to their leverage, they have far more than 13 billion worth of exposure.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by jakelazaroff on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:28PM (#25935630)
CNBC reported that Melvin Capital closed on their GameStop position [1]. So it's basically over, right? Or is there more to it?

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/hedge-fund-targeted-by-reddi...

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by 317070 on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:52PM (#25935870)
So, from what I understand (I did not do the maths myself), despite Gamestop being the most traded stock right now, not enough has moved in the premarket for Melvin Capital to actually close their position when they claimed they did. It seems a very dubious claim.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by djbebs on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:43PM (#25935762)
There is no evidence that is true, and short interest is still above 130% so it sounds like a lie to discourage additional buying of gme
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by echelon on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @07:26PM (#25936330)
Where do you determine short interest figures for a stock?

Are they accurate to the hour? My impression was that this information wasn't reported at a regular cadence, but I have no idea.

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by tekknik on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @08:34PM (#25936955)
Buy a dataset, get it from your broker or use a bloomberg terminal. The info available to most retail traders in their stock app of choice (and certainly true for RH) is pretty abysmal
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by nrmitchi on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @10:31PM (#25937797)
I suspect that RH drastically limiting the information available to their users is all designed to limit analysis and make people feel more confident that they fully understand everything they are doing. People trade more when they feel more confident.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by 1234throwaway on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @07:15PM (#25936181)
they most likely sold the position from melvin capital to another entity to hold the risk. that way melvin capital can say "oh yeah we caved in haha reddit wins" to try and calm the market, but I would wager that some private citadel fund is now about to be forced to fellate the reddit call pump
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by dash2 on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @06:54PM (#25935897)
Other shorts may well have moved in. Shorting at 3$ was optimistic. Shorting at $300 is less so.

Some people are saying that Melvin Capital lied. That seems unlikely: my guess is that you'd go to jail for a long time if you lied about your purchases to manipulate the market on such a grand scale.

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by pbhjpbhj on Thursday January 28, 2021 @11:30AM (#25944412)
Did anyone end up in jail for causing the global financial crisis? Or, say, for manipulation of the interbank lending rate?

Isn't it more likely the company will go bankrupt and the traders will 'only' have their most recent £10M bonus to fall back on?

Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by 6nf on Thursday January 28, 2021 @05:49PM (#25950645)
They did not lie, they just neglected to disclose how much of their shorts were closed.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by sjg007 on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @07:40PM (#25936483)
Lie or go bankrupt? Hard choice.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by llampx on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @08:29PM (#25936917)
Its cute that you think anyone in the cozy wall street / hedge fund family would go to jail for lying.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by nearbuy on Thursday January 28, 2021 @12:15AM (#25938482)
Bernie Madoff, Conrad Black, Martha Stewart
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by mmmeff on Thursday January 28, 2021 @04:05AM (#25939786)
Even then, it’s more of a “jail” than a jail.
Re:GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine by nearbuy on Saturday January 30, 2021 @01:19AM (#25966733)
I don't know that much about it. Martha Stewart went to a minimum security prison for female inmates, and honestly, she's exactly the type of criminal that belongs in minimum security. The judge recommended they send her to her first choice prison (in Danbury) but for some reason they couldn't and they sent her to a prison she didn't want. I'm not really seeing favoritism here. She was investigated for insider trading, but those charges got dismissed and she was ultimately just convicted for lying.