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Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by PragmaticPulp on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @07:45PM (#25922859)
The best argument they could come up with for Bitcoin is "If all of the S&P 500 companies moved 1% of their cash into Bitcoin, it would go up by this much". No real explanation of why companies would move their cash into Bitcoin instead of literally any other investment.

This sounds a lot like the tired "If we could capture 1% of the TAM..." argument used by startups that haven't really fleshed out their value proposition.

Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by doggosphere on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @08:49PM (#25923317)
Companies may move a portion of their cash into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

I'm guessing they assumed the reader was familiar with Bitcoin and the narrative of "digital gold".

Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by PragmaticPulp on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @09:01PM (#25923388)
> Companies may move a portion of their cash into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

Sure, but Bitcoin isn't even a particularly good way to hedge against inflation, given the wild volatility and speculative nature of the investment.

There are any number of other ways to hedge against inflation.

This is why "If we could capture 1% of the TAM..." arguments are flawed: They're worthless without an explanation for why this particular product is more likely to attract 1% of the TAM than comparable products.

Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by doggosphere on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @09:30PM (#25923561)
Its volatile, but first principles says volume should shake this out over time as it scales and becomes adopted.

For now, its an asymmetrical bet with more upside than downside. For the right company (Apple? Tesla?), buying in basically guarantees instantaneous capital appreciation as it signals an endorsement to the market.

I don't think a large co. buying is necessary for Bitcoin to keeping growing, but if it does, game theory suggests other treasuries will look at that action and say, "well, why not us?"

Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by AnimalMuppet on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @08:00PM (#25922961)
If the best argument for an investment is "if other people buy it, it will go up"... that's a pretty unimpressive sales pitch.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by Robotbeat on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @08:45PM (#25923286)
The best argument for Bitcoin growing in value is it's a social phenomenon that will continue for some indeterminate time. Over half a trillion dollars buys a LOT of people becoming intellectually invested in Bitcoin. Almost like a religion, but it's like money so even better.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by umeshunni on Tuesday January 26, 2021 @09:27PM (#25923541)
So, it's an irrational bubble. Got it.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by esja on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @03:26AM (#25925663)
The market cap is very misleading, as it values the entire pie based on what someone paid for the last slice. Much less than half a trillion has gone into BTC.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by Robotbeat on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @09:44AM (#25928822)
Absolutely. But people THINK they have half a trillion in Bitcoin “assets,” so that impacts their behavior. They will engage in all sorts of motivated reasoning to justify why it makes sense, to protect that and grow its a perceived value. And don’t underestimate the power of that, collectively.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by esja on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @01:32PM (#25931937)
I agree. It’s no different with other speculative “assets”.
Re:Big Ideas 2021 [pdf] by CyberDildonics on Wednesday January 27, 2021 @12:03PM (#25930629)
That isn't even really practical, since the throughput is only a few transactions per second and each transaction costs $17USD. Other cryptocurrencies could be useful, but not bitcoin.