What AGPL changed is that they made it trigger on distribution (like GPL) and on interactive access of modified versions over a network.
If Amazon's plan had been to make money by hosting a proprietary fork of the server, which would give them some sort of advantage over other clouds like Azure or Google that only have the non-proprietary version, AGPL would thwart them.
But that doesn't seem to be the case. They don't appear to trying to make it proprietary. They seem happy to run the same code that everyone else does. They are making money from it by selling management and support services for it.
AGPL doesn't impede doing that at all.
- your project running on Linux kernel doesn't become GPL
- your project talking to MySQL doesn't become GPL and one talking to mongodb pre-2018 doesn't become AGPL
- your project talking to elasticsearch wouldn't become AGPL
(However AWS search offering... could?)
> …except Elastic doesn't want to use the AGPL because anyone using Elasticsearch would have to open-source their whole codebase — a non-starter for most companies.
They wouldn't have to. This is a common misconception about AGPL.