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Re:Oldest known cave painting found in Indonesia by TaylorAlexander on Saturday January 16, 2021 @09:26PM (#25807497)
I haven’t given timelines in any parent comments. I say in a parallel comment approx “if starship and SpaceX succeed in making a base and regular support missions” in the next few decades then I could imagine Mars being self sustaining for at least emergency conditions in 50-200 years. I don’t know what “laughably far off” means. I’m certainly not saying it will happen in our lifetime I’m just describing possible timelines. The comment I responded to talked about the present motivations for Mars exploration which I think was incorrect - it has never been presented as a land full of resources as implied by the comment I first responded to. It’s about long term human goals.

I disagree that there is “nothing to gain” and in fact I think there’s a lot humanity could gain from the development of regular space travel and settlement of other planets.

Re:Oldest known cave painting found in Indonesia by tsimionescu on Sunday January 17, 2021 @04:36AM (#25809428)
"Laughably far off means" was meant to mean that we can't define a credible timeline. It is essentially impossible to do with our current skills (especially in terms of logistics and automation) so any estimate of timelines is extremely speculative. It could take 200 years, it could take 1000 years.

Overall, I believe that there is 0 reason to even attempt it for now. The Earth is in the middle of an existential crisis for human civilization as we know it, and all of our resources are required at home. We need to rebuild the global economy from the ground up in a way that will reduce global warming. Mars is no escape from this, certainly not in the next centuries.

Any cent that goes to a Mars colony would be better spent on Earth. If not for combating global warming, then at least for building self-sustaining colonies on Earth that could become a refuge for humanity if all else fails, or if we get struck by some asteroid. And this would not only buy us guaranteed survival, it would also act as a perfect model for a Mars colony is some far future - if we had actually built one on Earth, with all its requirements, building one on Mars would certainly become much easier.

Until and unless we know for sure that we could build truly permanent high-tech human settlements on Earth, there is no point in trying to in space. There is nothing to be gained from Mars if we can't build a permanent colony there not dependent on Earth resources, and we will not be able to build a permanent colony there unless we first build one on Earth.