If you want peace, study war

Re:If you want peace, study war by joshmarlow on Thursday January 14, 2021 @11:13AM (#25778112)

> people are profoundly evidence based. If there hasn't been a war in 30 years, then they assume there will not be a war next year no matter how the background is changing.

I model this differently - people are very conservative about narrative change. I feel it works more generally.

Examples:

If we've had peace for 30 years, then war seems impossible.

If we've had government fiat currency for a centuries or more, then of course cryptocurrencies are a joke.

If we've been on the gold standard for long enough, then of course that's how money should work.

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Re:If you want peace, study war by travisjungroth on Thursday January 14, 2021 @01:10PM (#25779826)

Yeah, “first principles” is such a SV cliche, but it’s very powerful for getting around this.

I think the pendulum can swing too far the other way, though. People imagine a blank slate, but we don’t live in a blank slate, so you’re essentially imagining a fantasy world. Or, you just end up recreating the old world in the new one but worse.

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