News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on U.S. to require negative Covid-19 tests for international air passengers. Parent comment

Re:U.S. to require negative Covid-19 tests for international... by slumdev on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @05:24PM (#25754797)
> the researchers presumed that 30% of individuals who contract the new coronavirus never develop symptoms but remain 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms.

They made up some numbers and played with the math. It's conjecture, not research.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:U.S. to require negative Covid-19 tests for international... by f430 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @06:29PM (#25755543)
> They made up some numbers and played with the math. It's conjecture, not research.

Do you know what conjecture means?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:U.S. to require negative Covid-19 tests for international... by slumdev on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @07:23PM (#25756152)
The second definition from Wiktionary is most appropriate for this situation:

> (formal) A supposition based upon incomplete evidence; a hypothesis.

There is no evidence that asymptomatic people are 75% as infectious as symptomatic people. The 75% number was fabricated to allow them to build a model. Asymptomatic people could be 0% as infectious as symptomatic people. Or, by some unexpected turn of fate, they could be 200% as infectious as symptomatic people. The evidence doesn't exist.

Your link even mentions another scientist who believes that asymptomatic people are only 35% as infectious.

[ Parent | on HN ]