Re:Are Experts Real?
by pdonis on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @02:48PM
(#25752429)
> That's neither here nor there though.
I disagree. I understand the issues you're raising, but there is a key difference as far as we, members of the public looking at science, are concerned. The process of building models can't really be critiqued by non-scientists; but the process of verifying the predictions of models can, because predictions, at least predictions that non-scientists care about, can always be boiled down to something that anyone can test. For example, if you want to test whether relativity works, just use the GPS on your phone: if the location it tells you you're at is correct, you've just verified predictions made by relativity.
It is true that scientists do not always boil down their predictions to such simple tests, but as members of the public, our response to that is easy as well: if a scientist can't boil down the predictions of their model to a simple test like that, don't believe the model. In other words, we as members of the public can give incentives with regard to predictions that we can't give with regard to model building, or more generally scientific research as a whole.
> you can always either make the model vague enough or shape, manipulate, skew, explain away the subsequent measurements enough to get a "good predictive track record".
You can only fake tests that aren't real tests anyway. You can't fake something like GPS working: either it consistently tells you where you are correctly, or it doesn't. So that's the kind of tests that should be required before members of the public accept the claims of any scientific model.
I disagree. I understand the issues you're raising, but there is a key difference as far as we, members of the public looking at science, are concerned. The process of building models can't really be critiqued by non-scientists; but the process of verifying the predictions of models can, because predictions, at least predictions that non-scientists care about, can always be boiled down to something that anyone can test. For example, if you want to test whether relativity works, just use the GPS on your phone: if the location it tells you you're at is correct, you've just verified predictions made by relativity.
It is true that scientists do not always boil down their predictions to such simple tests, but as members of the public, our response to that is easy as well: if a scientist can't boil down the predictions of their model to a simple test like that, don't believe the model. In other words, we as members of the public can give incentives with regard to predictions that we can't give with regard to model building, or more generally scientific research as a whole.
> you can always either make the model vague enough or shape, manipulate, skew, explain away the subsequent measurements enough to get a "good predictive track record".
You can only fake tests that aren't real tests anyway. You can't fake something like GPS working: either it consistently tells you where you are correctly, or it doesn't. So that's the kind of tests that should be required before members of the public accept the claims of any scientific model.