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Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by bobthepanda on Monday January 11, 2021 @03:15PM (#25735858)
The one child policy makes China’s aging problem particularly rapid, at a time when they are not wealthy enough per capita to make the transition. One child supports two parents and four grandparents. Plus a low retirement age that is only now getting extended. (60 for men, 55 for women previously). Over a third of Shanghai is over 60, as is a quarter in Beijing, Tianjin, etc.

Now the one child policy has been relaxed, but it will take a while before extra kids are available to work, and at this point it’s sort of a cultural norm to have one kid (plus prohibitively expensive to raise two kids and provide them decent resources).

Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by blisterpeanuts on Monday January 11, 2021 @03:21PM (#25735993)
True, they're in trouble demographically. Projections I have read in the past (before one-child was repealed) suggested they would lose 400m people by end of 21st Century. 400m!

Meanwhile, the West has its own implosion well underway... but, unlike China we have immigration. The U.S. population is still growing thanks to immigration, as is Europe's, even though both regions have replacement-level or below-replacement birthrates by natives. Immigrants tend to have higher birthrates however.

Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by Ericson2314 on Monday January 11, 2021 @03:35PM (#25736267)
I would think this is actually good for them, as more internal demand relative to supply will help further transition away from exports, and also help increases their productivity (at least if they make working hours less insane).
Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by bobthepanda on Monday January 11, 2021 @04:19PM (#25737222)
more internal demand but few people working is basically going to increase debt significantly, leave seniors in abject poverty, or some combination of the two. And possibly massive deflation as well since old people are on fixed incomes and don't spend too much.
Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by Ericson2314 on Monday January 11, 2021 @06:54PM (#25740053)
I thought Chinese household debt was absurdly low, but I guess that's changed.

Still, I would prefer to "quotient out the money", and say either the demand is met or it isn't? To the extent it is met, perhaps there are imports of material goods or domestic labor (nurses?)

I don't think it makes sense to worry about "domestic debt" in the same way, given the non-liberal political economy. Of course that doesn't mean there aren't limits, but the limits maybe would take the form of e.g. rising discontent and decreased productivity if it feels like an old-people-focused service economy with nothing in it for the workers.

Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by bobthepanda on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @03:07AM (#25743750)
So, Lost Decade Japan on steroids. A massive debt hangover after an asset bubble pop, deflation for a decade, and worse employment prospects and economic conditions for young people.
Re:China CCP to Nationalize Jack Ma's Alibaba and Ant Group ... by Ericson2314 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @03:08PM (#25752742)
It's silly to think that smaller portion of working age population -> worse employment prospects. That process is very possible but relies on higher order effects.

You can't just blindly apply the economics of traditional liberal economies to a 21st century high tech illiberal economy.