Firms will leave China once democracies around the world make a multi-lateral trade agreement and put our money elsewhere that's aligned with our core beliefs including or primarily free speech, say India. Get the agreement in place, have it come into effect in 2 years ahead of time, provide investment grants or loans to businesses (globally if they're aligned with democracy/free speech) who want to manufacture whatever will fill a gap in production for what the 80% of what consumers buy currently from China.
CCP could easily prevent this redirection of resources by allowing free speech and having elections.
The fine people of India believes that cows are sacred gods. They also believe that drinking cow piss is good for you. They also believe that bathing and wallowing in cow sh*t is healthy for you, because it’ll help strengthen your immune system.
India has a very very long way to go.
But hey, India has free speech and elections. So maybe you should tell all your multi-national corporations to relocate to India.
Xi is just a little red guard grew up from the culture revolution the only economic solution solution was follow Mao's "Nationalize" way.
It's easy to make non-specific, non-committal predictions of doom and gloom. I can say with absolute certainty that, say, the Euro will become worthless sometime between now and the heat death of the universe. My prediction is as useless, as it is accurate.
What kind of prediction, with what kind of error bar, are you ready to commit to?
As part of the 'pivot to Asia' initiated by Obama, America has helped many neighbors of Israel make peace with it formally. Iran vs. Saudi Arabia is the only other major engagement in the region. America will also likely extricate itself from Afghanistan completely in order to focus its resources on containing China.
In how many months do you expect your predictions will come true, in a way that will cause the majority of Fortune 500 firms to leave China? Three? Six? Sixty? Six hundred?
I, for one, have strong doubts that the majority of those firms will ever leave China.
I will also note that all of your criticisms can be applied even more-so to democracies. Internal turmoil, political infighting, negative world sentiment (for some of them), exploding debt, aging demographics, ossification of political structures and poor ability to self-correct, check, check, check. It's true that, say, the United States is not encircled, but it has a separate problem of having to over-reach to maintain an incredibly ambitious, and unsustainable overseas military presence.
If those criteria were sufficient for a social collapse, then we're all living on borrowed time, and I don't see why you're singling China out as a likely point of failure.