Re:Are Experts Real?
by d23 on Monday January 11, 2021 @03:00PM
(#25735553)
A lot of the points are interesting, but I couldn't help but get hung up on the link to the covid analyist who supposedly beat the experts, at https://www.maby.app/covid/
A couple of immediate red flags: the predictions stop in early May, and there appears to be no weighting of how "important" a given prediction is. Perhaps the former is just because a contest ended at that time. For the latter, of course, importance is subjective, but ranking these two as equivalent is silly:
* How many cases per day will Washington state average for the week ending June 7? (Tom: good prediction, Experts: bad)
* How many US COVID deaths will occur in 2020? (Tom: bad prediction, Experts: good)
A couple of immediate red flags: the predictions stop in early May, and there appears to be no weighting of how "important" a given prediction is. Perhaps the former is just because a contest ended at that time. For the latter, of course, importance is subjective, but ranking these two as equivalent is silly: