Re:Peer-reviewed study suggests that lockdowns have little e...
by Retric on Sunday January 10, 2021 @12:37PM
(#25717095)
What I see missing from this and several other types of analysis is lockdowns aren’t supposed to be instantly effective. A single infected individual will expose potentially many people in their household. That’s known and accepted, the goal is to stop the spread between groups. Effectively you need to compare infection growth rates 1 month into a lockdown not 1 day.
Unfortunately, US covid data is also really unreliable as the percentage of people diagnosed clearly isn’t constant over the course of the pandemic. Most obviously dips in daily infections and deaths over Thanksgiving and Christmas are clearly artifacts in data collection.
Looking at for example the weekly all-cause deaths in the U.S. shows large spikes corresponding to the 3 waves, but those peaks don’t map to the reported daily COVID deaths. Similarly the rates of COVID hospitalization and deaths don’t map between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pan...
PS: It’s easy to count the number of positive test results, much harder to accurately estimate total infections over time.
Unfortunately, US covid data is also really unreliable as the percentage of people diagnosed clearly isn’t constant over the course of the pandemic. Most obviously dips in daily infections and deaths over Thanksgiving and Christmas are clearly artifacts in data collection.
Looking at for example the weekly all-cause deaths in the U.S. shows large spikes corresponding to the 3 waves, but those peaks don’t map to the reported daily COVID deaths. Similarly the rates of COVID hospitalization and deaths don’t map between the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wave. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pan...
PS: It’s easy to count the number of positive test results, much harder to accurately estimate total infections over time.