My interpretation is different. I think that most of the people who rioted at the Capitol aren't hardened criminals who deduced that they require a gun to most efficiently achieve their ends. I think they're random people who have some image in their heads of "gun + flag = American patriot", and the rather frictionless process for obtaining a gun in America means they can fulfill that image pretty much on a whim.

I think we underrate the influence that small frictions in a process can have.