We know that asymptomatic people who are not immune can possibly spread the virus. But that’s a slightly different question.
We know that it’s very rare for someone with antibodies to be symptomatically reinfected with COVID. That’s also a slightly different question.
The specific question on the likelihood of someone with natural immunity to be able to later spread COVID without a symptomatic infection;
I’ve never heard of a single confirmed case of this happening. And the point is not that it never happens, the point is it’s a negligible risk. Smaller than, for example, someone who isn’t immune who is wearing a mask.
But from a public policy perspective, we’ll never actually admit this, just because the second order effects — where some people can rightfully walk around without a mask and are rightfully not subject to mitigations and lockdowns - are political untenable.
I have to show my yellow piece of paper with the stamp from my jab when I travel to several countries, most recently Nigeria
Have a look at hcov’s seasonality in figure 2 here: https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-0...
“It’s not seasonal” is one of the mantras health agencies repeated in february, along with “masks aren’t shown to work” and “it doesn’t” spread by aerosol.
My guess is your health agency simply hasn’t re-examined their beliefs as evidence came in.
First wave ended in June in the northern hemisphere and started in the southern hemisphere at about the same time. We are seeing a similar shift in the second wave.
It can be a coincidence but since people are more likely to stay inside when it is cold outside, and transmission is more likely inside, it makes sense.
Since the cold season is usually when it is cold outside, yeah. Might be more than coincidence.
As far as pressures on healthcare systems though, once over 65s have been vaccinated (and the northern winter ends) the pressures pretty much vanish.
> Similar to how we’ve never really admitted that people who’ve had COVID are immune and can no longer spread it.
Well we don't know that. In many cases the virus reproduces and spreads without any symptoms. If the spread occurs before the immune system kicks in you could still be a carrier even though the vaccine makes your symptoms pretty much zero.