Re:FDA statement on following the authorized dosing schedule...
by JohnCohorn on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @03:59PM
(#25650948)
From what I recall from Dr. John Campbell’s excellent daily videos, the UK strategy was not to give only one dose, but to simply delay the second dose a few weeks so that more people could get their first injection from the initial supply(presumably supply will increase over time). That sounds much lower risk. I think the single dose proposal was a US thing.
Re:FDA statement on following the authorized dosing schedule...
by dcolkitt on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @03:29PM
(#25650592)
All of the mRNA vaccines target the spike protein. Coronavirus spike protein mutations have only ever been observed to occur in bats- never humans. Therefore the number of vaccinated people will almost assuredly not increase the likelihood of a resistant strain.
Re:FDA statement on following the authorized dosing schedule...
by foolmeonce on Tuesday January 05, 2021 @06:16PM
(#25652599)
I would accept a similar kind of reasoning in an argument towards caution, but not in an argument for seeing what happens with prolonged partial but insufficient immunity. Aside from near certainty that a change to the target protein is game over, we have no idea what other mutations could render immune responses triggered by the vaccines worthless, and I don't see the ethics in an experiment to find these mutations.
R-Value with UK mutation: 3?
Effectiveness with 1 dose: 66%?
Probability of breeding a new mutation if you gradually vaccinate everyone in the UK up to only 1 dose:
99.9%?
Once 2/3 of people have 1 dose, mutations that make the vaccines worthless should dominate given the available pool, and then the available pool is back to everyone again.