Considering the vast number of excess deaths of old but healthy people and the human cost of the people who continue to show symptoms months after initial infection, I would say your calculations are just wrong.

Excess deaths globally for 2020 will end up being about 2.5%

Is that vast?

It's 13% higher in England, which yes, I would characterize as vast.

I'm not sure you understand how excess mortality works. Excess mortality right now during the winter period is higher...it always is. And 13% is not panic numbers.

Would you be surprised to learn that the 17/18 flu season resulted in more excess deaths than we are having right now? Surely you must have been freaking out then as well advocating for national lockdowns...right?

No, it was 13% higher overall in England during 2020 compared to the 5-year average.

Your comparison with the '17 flu season is, honestly, stupid, and demonstrates your lack of reasoning on this. C'mon: there _wasn't_ a lockdown, and here despite a tremendous lockdown and a long way to go before herd immunity the situation is dire.

I think your point is that life and health are being traded is not the case - since these measures are to keep people alive and healthy. I agree there is some cost but let's not get hyperbolic.

Gyms and organized sports are closed. Most people are living sedentary lives. Activities that young children rely on for physical development and exercise are non existent. Many children haven't socialized with someone their age in almost a year. Children are unable to focus on school and are being under-educated. Depression rates amongst school age children have skyrocketed.

It is not hyperbolic to say that health and mental health is being traded away.

My family's experience is the exact opposite of what you describe. I've never been healthier because most of last year I had time to go for daily exercise instead of sitting in a car commuting. I took my young daughter out with me a lot of the time. My wife also took advantage of the daily outings. Our mental health is probably better than it has ever been because we get to spend more time with each other rather than with a bunch of guys in the office.

Education wise, my wife has used the opportunity to dip her toes into teaching - which is something she always wanted to try. I realise not everyone wants to be a teacher, but you never know.

The situation is what you make of it.

My experience is the exact opposite of what you describe. I've experienced depression and anxiety for the first time in my life, due to most fun things in my life disappearing overnight (due to mainly involving socialization). The future is bleak. I've gotten pretty decent at guitar though. That doesn't replace seeing friends though unfortunately.

I'm very sorry to hear that - I'm not sure I can offer much in the way of improving your outlook. I'm just focusing on the vaccine and the hope that provides.

To change the subject slightly: Would you describe yourself as an extrovert or introvert?

As an introvert I suppose I thrive on my own / with few people around me. I wonder if extroverts suffer more mental anquish when forced into isolation?