Don't you put that on me. You're explicitly talking about a scenario where we're not even comparing notes on the possibility space of that uncertainty until I'm downside-committed.
Won't answer whether they should get done. That question is open right now.
The market research goes like this:
Who are the influencers?
What do they think?
What does rank and file think?
Is there potential for high degree of solidarity in all that?
There is your basis for an effort to be put forth for you to consider right there.
Then the real work begins. Sort the people out and work toward a winning scenario.
There is risk. The better organizers manage that by how and with whom and when organizing is done.
By the time you reach potential downside commit, there will be a much more clear deal to consider.
No. The organization movement wants me, I don’t want them. They can come to me.
> Where the fuck is the actual case study about the structure of the system, constraints, influences, incentives? How does it evolve and how does the contract change and evolve that system?
These are the questions that some organizers who have written books about organizing are also trying to answer.
You simply asked a great question and I let you know where the answer is found and sketched a piece of it for you.
That's all.
Voting in a union is actually voting first that you opt in to a collective bargaining agreement, then negotiating the terms of the agreement among members. Later, negotiations are had with the company.
Your POV is common to many that will accept much less with certainty rather than working through a decent amount of uncertainty for the prospect of a whole lot more.