In theory the USD price of bitcoin is tracking the inflation of the USD but with excessive volatility. However, it is possible for it to grow slightly faster than inflation if a significant portion of the central bank money is arriving in cryptocurrencies. In practice it's getting dwarfed by the factors you mentioned. Lots of irrational investors are pumping BTC until it crashes.

Over the long term (several decades) you can expect it to perform like gold once it has turned into a mature market.