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A comment on Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it. Parent comment

Re:Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a la... by nwah1 on Wednesday December 30, 2020 @06:40PM (#25587691)
And that is very solid bayesian logic. Wuhan has the only BSL-4 lab in China, and was specifically working on gain-of-function research on coronaviruses.

The initial prior of zoonotic origin simply because that was usually the case in the past is just as circumstantial, but also just as solid in bayesian terms.

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Re:Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a la... by someperson on Wednesday December 30, 2020 @08:07PM (#25588372)
> Wuhan has the only BSL-4 lab in China

The Harbin Veterinary Research Institute in Heilongjiang is another BSL-4 lab

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Re:Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a la... by nwah1 on Wednesday December 30, 2020 @09:11PM (#25588814)
Fair enough, but it had only been operational for a year at the time of the outbreak and is focused on veterinary science.
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Re:Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a la... by malcolmgreaves on Wednesday December 30, 2020 @06:54PM (#25587813)
Belief in the posterior update is still completely circumstantial. It's not direct evidence, nor an explained cause other than proximity. I'd argue they miscalcualted the probability change with respect to this piece of information.
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