You were not wrong. The initial estimates in jan-feb was an infection fatality rate in the 1-5% range, which is pretty bad and comparable to something like prostate cancer or lymphoma, yet by March/April, when the stock market bottomed, a bunch of studies such as study of asymptomatic prison cases and a study of California cases, showed a much, much lower IFR, of around .2-.5%, which has fallen ever since as more people are tested, which came as major phycological relief even as the death and case count costumes to rise.