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A comment on Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by hliyan on Friday December 25, 2020 @08:57AM (#25536493)
When you consider the potential age of the universe [1], we can also argue that the universe is currently in its extreme infancy and we many in fact be one of the very first civilizations to start thinking about other civilizations, and all other "firstborn" civilizations are similarly constrained by technology.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Five_Ages_of_the_Universe , more dramatically portrayed in this excellent video: A Journey to the End of Time [2]

[2] https://youtu.be/uD4izuDMUQA?t=196

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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by pfdietz on Friday December 25, 2020 @03:28PM (#25538792)
It has been estimated that 95% of the stars that will ever form have already formed. Far from being in its infancy, from the point of view of locations for new life arising the universe is nearly done.

https://scitechdaily.com/star-formation-in-the-universe-has-...

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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by soared on Friday December 25, 2020 @06:53PM (#25540116)
But they have existed for a short period of their lifespan, so by definition are early in their lifetimes. The argument isn’t that there will be new stars, but that they will exist for a long time.
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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by pfdietz on Friday December 25, 2020 @07:30PM (#25540319)
There's good reason to think life is not going to arise on planets around M stars. Our sun is quite bright compared to the typical star, is already gone through about half its time on the main sequence, and as the Sun continues to brighten the Earth will become uninhabitable in about 1 billion more years.

Moreover, life originated early on Earth. This suggests either that more than one extremely rare event is needed to get from life to us, or that the conditions for OoL do not persist for very long (ammonia, for example, is rapidly destroyed by solar radiation.)

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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by hindsightbias on Friday December 25, 2020 @11:05AM (#25537195)
Evidence points to us having missed all the good parties:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.07902

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