Re:Apple targets car production by 2024, eyes ‘next level’ b...
by ethbr0 on Wednesday December 23, 2020 @05:02PM
(#25522779)
We'll see. I'm a huge fan of the futurist motto that actual progress, as opposed to expected progress, is driven by difference-from-current. (Maybe from Kurzweil?)
E.g. (1) we don't have flying cars because they're not different enough from street cars to justify their cost, and (2) we do have incredible wireless cell phones because they're fundamentally different than landlines.
"Massive transition" etc. just doesn't ring true.
After transitioning, the car experience won't be fundamentally that different than the current car + ride share experience.
If anything, the future of automobiles seems more likely to lead to lower ownership rates, more commoditization, compressed margins, and a worse market to win.
Apple still has to answer to shareholders, and Tim Cook doesn't have Jobs-levels of trust to trade on.
E.g. (1) we don't have flying cars because they're not different enough from street cars to justify their cost, and (2) we do have incredible wireless cell phones because they're fundamentally different than landlines.
"Massive transition" etc. just doesn't ring true.
After transitioning, the car experience won't be fundamentally that different than the current car + ride share experience.
If anything, the future of automobiles seems more likely to lead to lower ownership rates, more commoditization, compressed margins, and a worse market to win.
Apple still has to answer to shareholders, and Tim Cook doesn't have Jobs-levels of trust to trade on.