Re:Overdose deaths far outpace Covid-19 deaths in San Francisco
by gnusty_gnurc on Sunday December 20, 2020 @02:32PM
(#25488878)
> Growth prior to the initial lockdowns was expoenential with a doubling rate between 5-7 days. Had this been ineffective we'd have all been sick by now and maybe 50-100M people would be dead worldwide.
You know this isn't true because practically every local area that suffers an outbreak follows the same curve regardless of how they implement a strategy.
It looks different at larger levels (town, city, state, country, globe) because it's the aggregation of multiple outbreaks.
Re:Overdose deaths far outpace Covid-19 deaths in San Francisco
by newacct583 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:17PM
(#25489178)
> You know this isn't true because practically every local area that suffers an outbreak follows the same curve regardless of how they implement a strategy.
That's just laughably wrong. Explain how these are the "same curve"?
https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countr...
Re:Overdose deaths far outpace Covid-19 deaths in San Francisco
by gnusty_gnurc on Sunday December 20, 2020 @03:25PM
(#25489228)
Did you even read what I said? I said local outbreaks all follow the same spread curve.
When aggregated at the country level you're looking at many separate outbreaks superimposed, hence the wide curves.
Re:Overdose deaths far outpace Covid-19 deaths in San Francisco
by newacct583 on Sunday December 20, 2020 @04:05PM
(#25489486)
And that too seems trivially falsifiable. You have something to cite?
That doesn't follow. Growth prior to the initial lockdowns was expoenential with a doubling rate between 5-7 days. Had this been ineffective we'd have all been sick by now and maybe 50-100M people would be dead worldwide.
Clearly "lockdown" (which is a loaded term people tend to use for anything from stay at home orders to simple mask requirements) worked. The question is how well and to what extent the regimes were followed, and by which populations.