Re:MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Debt Bet
by orev on Sunday December 13, 2020 @11:18AM
(#25407580)
Watch out for survivorship bias. How many other things also came and went bust in the time since bitcoin started? If you invested in all of them, you probably would be at a net loss.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
>How many other things also came and went bust in the time since bitcoin started?
The higher this number is, the better argument it is for Bitcoin's "Lindy" qualities
In other words: Every day bitcoin survives its safety as an investment grows a little bit.
Unlikely, given the insane growth of Bitcoin. If you invested a million dollars equally across a thousand schemes ($1000 each), with one of those being Bitcoin at $1, and then everything but Bitcoin failed, you'd be up almost 19 million dollars.
Same principle as a lot of VC, if you invest in fifty failed startups and one Facebook, you win.