Re:Daily U.S. death toll will exceed 9/11′s for months, CDC ...
by gwittel on Friday December 11, 2020 @02:37PM
(#25389844)
Note the US data for 2020 ends in early November; before the large November surge.
I would not take that much comfort given the surge in case counts. I don't doubt we are better handling cases now vs April, at the same time hospitals will soon hit the triage stage.
Positive tests tend to trail exposure by 1-2 weeks, while hospitalizations trail another week or two behind positive tests. Deaths can lag even further (not sure on the numbers here). So we're only just getting into the beginning of the post-Thanksgiving spike impacting hospitals.
While most serious cases hit those with compounding factors (age, health, etc.) if you look at the percent of excess deaths, it spans all age groups (again data ends early Nov):
I would not take that much comfort given the surge in case counts. I don't doubt we are better handling cases now vs April, at the same time hospitals will soon hit the triage stage.
Positive tests tend to trail exposure by 1-2 weeks, while hospitalizations trail another week or two behind positive tests. Deaths can lag even further (not sure on the numbers here). So we're only just getting into the beginning of the post-Thanksgiving spike impacting hospitals.
While most serious cases hit those with compounding factors (age, health, etc.) if you look at the percent of excess deaths, it spans all age groups (again data ends early Nov):
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores...
The other good resource is John Hopkins has a chart overlaying date of policy changes vs cases (or deaths):
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/state-timeline/new-confirme...