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Re:Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties ... by gojomo on Thursday December 10, 2020 @02:27AM (#25370869)
There is plenty of suggestive evidence the pandemic arose from a lab escape. Novel natural bat SARS-like coronaviruses have been found in caves hundred of miles from Wuhan... but are brought to Wuhan for study.

Here – https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1197631383470034951 – an expert on the topic & scientific collaborator with a Wuhan lab describes research he was proud of in November 2019:

> we’ve made great progress with bat SARS-related CoVs, ID’ing >50 novel strains, sequencing spike protein genes, ID’ing ones that bind to human cells, using recombinant viruses/humanized mice to see SARS-like signs, and showing some don’t respond to MAbs, vaccines...

Lab accidents leading to investigator infection & escape are distressingly common. So why should "wet market vendor" or "wildlife trader" or "farmer" be a more presumptive index-case than "researcher modifying bat coronaviruses searching for those that are most dangerous in humanized animal models"?

Re:Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties ... by ivalm on Thursday December 10, 2020 @02:39AM (#25370952)
See sister reply, it’s all basically FUD.
Re:Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties ... by gojomo on Thursday December 10, 2020 @03:11AM (#25371131)
Sister reply only seems to address the Yan report & malicious/military engineering - nothing about more generic lab escape.

In particular, your NatGeo link's description of constant natural discoveries, and continuing searches for natural origins, is totally consistent with the most trivial & non-malicious lab escape scenario:

(1) lab interested in this topic collects hundreds of novel natural strains that wouldn't normally cross from bats to human;

(2) lab accident infects researcher;

(3) researcher infects community.

Isn't Peter Daszak, author of the tweet I quoted, a domain expert?

We now know, from the pandemic, that a bat-related SARS-CoV2 virus that's highly transmissible in humans actually exists, somehow.

There are human-staffed error-prone labs that specifically search for those kinds of viruses in bulk – for example, sending people deep into rarely-visited bat caves, collecting strains, then replicating (& remixing!) those strains to test them against human (and 'humanized') tissue for pathogenecity & treatment-resistance.

Given those plain facts, what makes you think some other bat-human (pangolin-human?, something-else-human?) contact should be presumed a more likely route into humans than something involving a lab researcher? Until there's more evidence, why aren't they all live hypotheses?