More-or-less what happened here in Sweden, no lockdowns during the first wave, still most people wouldn't dare going out for eating and drinking. It eased up a little during summer with number of cases falling, after it picked up again in September there was a noticeable drop again without government intervention.

Then in November it was visible that without intervention cases would start to pile up and service business were still suffering due to low patronage, there is no way out of this and government intervention vs no intervention isn't the root cause of the downfall for the service industry, it's pretty clear.