Re:South Africa's lottery probed as 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 drawn
by thaumasiotes on Thursday December 03, 2020 @12:48AM
(#25285836)
> I'm sure many readers implicitly converted 775% to the expectation in their heads.
Most people cannot do this correctly; the most obvious interpretation of a "775% chance" is that it represents a 25% chance of seven occurrences and a 75% chance of eight occurrences, with no other possibilities.
The problem gets even worse when you have expectations less than one. If the expected number of occurrences is 80%, what are the odds of getting any occurrences at all? They're less than 80% as long as it's possible to have more than one occurrence.
Most people cannot do this correctly; the most obvious interpretation of a "775% chance" is that it represents a 25% chance of seven occurrences and a 75% chance of eight occurrences, with no other possibilities.
The problem gets even worse when you have expectations less than one. If the expected number of occurrences is 80%, what are the odds of getting any occurrences at all? They're less than 80% as long as it's possible to have more than one occurrence.