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Re:R number for UK below 1 for first time since August by Izkata on Saturday November 28, 2020 @03:46AM (#25236304)
The graph on the second page is really low quality (I can't read the X-axis, the highlighted section is a different size, and the highlighted section has 2 additional series that don't show up in the key), so it's really hard to say for sure, but it's totally possible for both to be true: If most of the deaths so far were a "culling effect" of people likely to die later in the year, then the net by the end of the year could be "no difference".

Given the average age of deaths by COVID-19 being above average life expectancy, this totally seems possible to me - lots of excess deaths early in the year, but the opposite later in the year, resulting in net "deaths as usual" over the whole year.

Re:R number for UK below 1 for first time since August by disgruntledphd2 on Saturday November 28, 2020 @04:50AM (#25236588)
> Given the average age of deaths by COVID-19 being above average life expectancy, this totally seems possible to me - lots of excess deaths early in the year, but the opposite later in the year, resulting in net "deaths as usual" over the whole year.

Life expectancy at birth, and life expectancy given a particular age are very different.

Most of those Covid deaths were above life expectancy are using life expectancy at birth figures, which is very misleading (as if you make it 82 you're almost certainly a fitter than average 82 year old).

Re:R number for UK below 1 for first time since August by tialaramex on Saturday November 28, 2020 @06:59AM (#25237050)
The year 2020 isn't over as we write this, so of course your hypothesis is technically possible. In the final weeks of the year US death rates could fall through the floor compared to normal.

But that's not a hypothesis about the existing data, that's a guess about the future, and probably not a very good one.

This presentation masqueraded as an analysis of existing data, and the existing data shows a big rise in excess deaths. A competent analysis ought to at the very least point out this discrepancy and try to address it.

The alternatives are the author wasn't aware that excess deaths statistics are available or worse they were aware those statistics contradicted their thesis and decided to hope the audience didn't know.

Somebody else has linked one of the sites that charts US death figures. They are not subtle. In some countries you have to squint to see any impact from COVID-19, because the data is noisy and their population is small. (And maybe their reaction was effective, we can say this is the case for New Zealand but less clearly for say, Finland). But for the US it's an obvious anomaly, a prolonged excess over months.