For the last few decades the industry has generally believed that GC lets code run faster, although it has drawbacks in terms of being wasteful with memory and unsuitable for hard-realtime code. Refcounting has been thought inferior, although it hasn't stopped the Python folks and others from being successful with it. It sounds like Apple uses refcounting as well and has found a way to improve refcounting speed, which usually means some sort of specific silicon improvement.
I'd speculate that moving system memory on-chip wasn't just for fewer chips, but also for decreasing memory latency. Decreasing memory latency by having a cpu cache is good, but making all of ram have less latency is arguably better. They may have solved refcounting hot spots by lowering latency for all of ram.
From Apple's site:
"M1 also features our unified memory architecture, or UMA. M1 unifies its high-bandwidth, low-latency memory into a single pool within a custom package. As a result, all of the technologies in the SoC can access the same data without copying it between multiple pools of memory." That is paired with a diagram that shows the cache hanging off the fabric, not the CPU.
That says to me that, similar to how traditionally the cpu and graphics card could access main memory, now they have turned the cache from a cpu-only resource into a shared resource just like main memory. I wonder if the GPU can now update refcounts directly in the cache? Is that a thing that would be useful?
I roughly understand how refcounting causes extra damage to cache coherency: anywhere that a refcount increment is required, you mutate the count on an object before you use it, and then decrement it later. Often times, those counting operations are temporally distant from the time that you access the object contents.
I do not really understand the "pipeline bubbles" part, and am curious if someone can elaborate.
Reading on in the wiki page, they talk about weak references (completely different than weak memory ordering referenced above). This reminds me that Cocoa has been making ever more liberal use of weak references over the years, and a lot of iOS code I see overuses them, particularly in blocks. I last looked at the objc implementation years ago, but it was some thread safe LLVM hash map split 8 or 16 ways to reduce lock contention. My takeaway was roughly, "wow that looks expensive". So while weak refs are supposed to be used judiciously, and might only represent 1% or less of all refs, they might each cost over 100x, and then I could imagine all of your points could be significant contributors.
In other words, weak references widen the scope of this guessing game from just "what chip changes improve refcounting" to "what chip changes improve parallelized, thread safe hash maps."