Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine

Re:Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine by jsmith99 on Monday November 23, 2020 @07:11AM (#25185872)

It's not so much the cost, it's also the delay. At a 5% cost of capital, and a 10 year lag between R&D and final approval, your real cash flows are 40% lower due to the delay. At a 10% cost of capital, they are 60% lower. Sales also take several additional years to ramp up.

This doesn't apply so much to Covid vaccines, as the time frame is accelerated and demand is already high.

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Re:Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine by Scandiravian on Monday November 23, 2020 @08:01AM (#25186303)

The 1bn is only the out-of-pocket cost for development and doesn't factor in for instance opportunity cost. If we include everything required to develop a vaccine, I'd imagine we're looking at something north of 2.5bn

There's so many ways to calculate the cost, that I think it's more important to be aware of the assumptions made for the estimate, than the number itself (which I also failed to do in my original answer)

I think people underestimate the cost of drug development, because the numbers are so big, that it doesn't seem realistic for companies to survive

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